GILTS: Sell Off Holds, Curve Steeper
Gilts are just off lows after the latest round of tariff-inspired worry (Trump’s latest metal tariff increase threats) and higher oil prices (in light of the OPEC+ meeting) seem to increase the market-based risks of persistent inflation over at least the medium-term.
- Futures traded as low as 91.16 before a shallow recovery to ~91.25 last.
- First support of note not seen until the May 29 low (90.59).
- The bearish technical cycle in the contract remains in play, with our technical analyst still deeming the recent recovery to be corrective.
- Initial resistance located at 91.87.
- Yields are 2.5-6.0bp higher.
- 2s10s and 5s30s still ~15bp off respective cycle closing highs.
- 10s vs. Bunds 1bp tighter at 214bp. April closing highs at 218.8bp intact.
- Hawkish adjustments seen in GBP STIRs as core global FI softens.
- SONIA futures last little changed to -3.0, erasing Friday’s post-settlement uptick. SFIZ5 6.0bp off May’s lows.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~35bp of cuts through year-end vs. ~37bp late Friday.
- Spill over from the latest U.S. ISM manufacturing release is eyed later today.
- Comments from BoE’s Greene (18:00 London) & Mann (text released at 15:00 London) are also due.
- Mann’s comments will come under particular scrutiny, with her only post-May MPC appearance (where she provided hawkish dissent, voting for unchanged rates) providing little in the way of details.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.214 | +0.3 |
Aug-25 | 4.105 | -10.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.064 | -14.7 |
Nov-25 | 3.929 | -28.2 |
Dec-25 | 3.858 | -35.3 |
Feb-26 | 3.754 | -45.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.742 | -46.9 |
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Hits Bear Trigger, New Cycle Low
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4087 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3935 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3793 @ 17:00 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 1.3760 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend set-up in USDCAD deteriorated further Friday, with prices slipping through the bear trigger to narrow the gap with next support. The fresh cycle low reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3943, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidation Phase
- RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6470 High May 2
- PRICE: 0.6445 @ 16:59 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 0.6344/6316 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support
AUDUSD remains inside a consolidation phase, having traded either side of the 0.6400 level for 10 consecutive sessions. The underlying trend remains bullish and the pair is trading close to recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6316, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.
US TSYS: Rates Retreat, Sentiment Improved Though Trade Risk Remains
- Treasuries look to finish near late Friday session lows after trading firmer on the open, higher than expected Nonfarm payrolls at 177k (sa, cons 138k) of which private contributed 167k (sa, cons 125k) triggered the early reversal.
- However, two-month revisions of -58k offset the 39k beat for nonfarm payrolls, with a similar story for private (a 42k surprise vs -48k two-month revision).
- Stocks are back near four week highs - pre-"Liberation Day" levels as hopes of some trade deal being made improved sentiment.
- The Wall Street Journal reports that "Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s gripes over China’s role in the fentanyl trade... potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start." The Journal notes that "discussions remain fluid" and China "would like to see some softening of stance from President Trump".
- Currently, the Jun'25 10Y contract trades -20 at 111-07.5 vs 111-02 low -- initial technical support (50-dma) followed by 110-16.5/109-08 (Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger). Curves bear flattened, 2s10s -3.480 at 48.002, 5s30s -4.911 at 86.807.
