GOLD TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Key Support
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3373.6/3439.0 - High Jul 25 / 23
- PRICE: 3295.4 @ 07:21 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3319.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.
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GOLD TECHS: Trading Above Monday’s Low
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3395.1 - High Jun 23
- RES 1: $3358.0/3451.3 - High Jul 1 / High Jun 16
- PRICE: $3335.6 @ 07:21 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg
Gold traded lower last Friday resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from Monday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
BUNDS: Heavy German supply is the early Focus
- The German Bund was mostly quoted two ticks wide pre Cash Open, with little change in its range.
- The Contract trades circa Yesterday's mid range, and the initial support and resistance are unchanged, these stand at 130.00 (support) and 130.80 (resistance).
- The US Treasuries took the lead Yesterday, the 10yr Yield fell through 4.20%, but the support noted at 4.1942% held, printed a 4.1852% low Yesterday.
- Next support in TYU5 was seen at 111.22, and this has again held Yesterday during the reversal and the fall lower in Futures following the US ISM Beat.
- This support level is unchallenged so far Today.
- There are no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, and US ADP hasn't moved markets for some time, the main focus this Week was always the US NFP Tomorrow. Early focus is on the Heavy German Supply this Morning.
- SUPPLY: UK £5bn 2028 (Equates to ~14k Gilt), should have a limited impact, German €6bn 10yr is heavy (equates to 50.3k Bund) will weigh.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Guindos, Cipollone, Lane, Lagarde, BoE Taylor.
BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $67.24 @ 07:05 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, and for now, maintains a softer tone. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, the 61.8% retracement of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
