GOLD TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Key Support
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3373.6/3439.0 - High Jul 25 / 23
- PRICE: 3303.00 @ 07:25 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3321.1, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.
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BRENT TECHS: (U5) Maintains A Bearish Tone
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $66.76 @ 07:07 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Lowe Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures are unchanged. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, and for now, maintains a softer tone. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, the 61.8% retracement of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
BUNDS: The Divergence vs the US is in Focus
- Bund might be showing 25 ticks up going into the Cash Open, testing the intraday high on low volumes after the 2.60% area in Yield held again Yesterday, printed a 2.612% high.
- But the continued divergence against the US Tnotes (TYU5) will be watched, the US 10yr Yield tested the 4.20% level, initial support was seen Yesterday at 4.1942%, which equated to 112.11 Yesterday.
- Today's printed high in TYU5 is just 2.5 ticks off that level.
- For the German Bund, support moves down to the 130.00 figure, while the initial resistance remains unchanged at 130.80.
- Today's Manufacturing PMIs are final reading for France, Germany, EU, UK and US, the focus Today is on the EU Prelim CPI, US ISM Mfg and JOLTS.
- ECB CPI expectations are also due for release.
- SUPPLY: UK £2bn 30yr (equates to 19.3k Gilt) could somewhat weigh.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed Powell, BoE Bailey, BoJ Ueda.
SOFR OPTIONS: SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 Put Spread Sold
SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 put spread 2K given at 3.25
