GBPUSD TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Key Support
Jul-25 13:56
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.3689 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3627 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3589 High Jul 24
- PRICE: 1.3431 @ 14:55 BST Jul 25
- SUP 1: 1.3416/3365 Intraday low / Low Jul 16 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD faced resistance Thursday and remains softer for now. Attention is on the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the downleg that has been in place since Jan 1. This would open 1.3335 initially, the May 20 low. Note that a break of 1.3365 would also confirm a breach of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low - cancelling a false break scenario. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: Nasdaq breaks a new all time record high on the Open
Jun-25 13:49
- Nasdaq (NDX) breaks higher on the Open to reach a new all time record high on the Cash Open, this level was at 22,222.61, and the Index has printed a 22,329.68 high.
- Cash SPX has also gapped higher, but the index is still short of the record high situated at 6,147.43.
SONIA: Medium-Term Dovish Catalyst Likely Needed To Push SFIZ5/Z6 Notably Lower
Jun-25 13:37
The SFIZ5/Z6 spread hovers above year-to-date lows (-21.0 vs. -23.0).
- It seems that the market needs a fresh medium-term dovish catalyst to drive the spread significantly lower.
- The BoE’s current guidance continues to point towards quarterly rate cuts through year-end.
- Our baseline view looks for cuts at both the August and November meetings.
- What could push the SFIZ5/Z6 spread lower?
- While the 6-3 vote split at the most recent MPC decision was dovish when compared to the 7-2 market baseline heading in, Deputy Governor Ramsden’s choice to join the dovish camp was within the list of viable outcomes.
- The market needs to see more before committing to pricing deeper easing.
- The most obvious driver would be a continued deterioration in the labour market, resulting in lower wage growth.
- This could then feed into a more benign inflation backdrop than the BoE currently expects.
- However, there are some risks to this idea, even if the data evolves in that manner.
- A rapid deterioration in the labour market could result in frontloading of rate cuts, making for limited or even hawkish impact on this spread if the cutting cycle comes to an end before the turn of the year (the MaPS survey points to a 3.50% neutral rate vs. the prevailing 4.25%).
- What’s more, geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff policy present notable medium-term externalities at present, providing a limitation when it comes to pricing a deeper cutting cycle in ’26.
- These factors also feed into the broader sense of macro uncertainty, making it hard to form a view beyond the next few months.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
Jun-25 13:26
- SPX: 6,111.8 (+0.3%).
- DJIA: 43,130 (+0.1%/+41pts).
- NDX: 22,316.5 (+0.6%).
