US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: Secured Rates, Effective Funds Flat Friday
Latest data shows no change to key secured rates (including SOFR) nor, unsurprisingly, effective Fed funds at the end of last week.
- As such, SOFR continues to print about 4bp below EFFR since the FOMC's 5bp downward adjustment to ON RRP in December, with BGCR and TGCR even closer to the bottom of the Fed funds target range of 4.25%.
- A pickup in bill settlements could see rates tick up on a couple of occasions this week including Tuesday and Thursday, but generally rates are expected to remain fairly tamed until the usual end-month rise.
| REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume): |
| * Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.29%, no change, $2326B |
| * Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.27%, no change, $884B |
| * Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.27%, no change, $869B |
| New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day): |
| * Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $102B |
| * Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $299B |
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
