EU FINANCIALS: SEB Group: 3Q25 Results Headlines
(SEB; Aa3pos/A+pos/AA)
Very small negative. Headline revenue miss as Corporate & IB revenue comes in c.SEK0.6bn shy of expectations, although part of this is the banking levy on the IB being about SEK150m more than expected. Small beat in NII. CET1 beats, RWA falls slightly. Provisions remain predictably fine.
- Net Revenue SEK18.7bn vs est. SEK19.2bn (-4.6% QoQ / -10.7% YoY)
- Net Interest Income SEK10.4bn vs est. SEK10.2bn (0.7% QoQ / -7.5% YoY)
- Non-Interest Income SEK8.2bn vs est. SEK9.0bn (-10.5% QoQ / -14.5% YoY)
- Total Operating Expenses SEK7.9bn vs est. SEK8.1bn (-0.8% QoQ / 2.6% YoY)
- Loan Loss Provision SEK0.2bn vs est. SEK0.4bn (-31.2% QoQ / -48.3% YoY)
- Pre-Tax Income SEK9.7bn vs est. SEK9.8bn (-6.5% QoQ / -17.8% YoY)
- Corporate & Investment Banking
- Operating Profit SEK3.7bn vs est. SEK4.5bn (-12.0% QoQ / -15.7% YoY)
- Business & Retail Banking
- Operating Profit SEK2.6bn vs est. SEK2.6bn (-4.1% QoQ / -25.3% YoY)
- Wealth & Asset Management
- Operating Profit SEK1.4bn vs est. SEK1.2bn (13.1% QoQ / -11.4% YoY)
- CET1 Ratio 18.2% vs est. 17.9%
- NPL/Total Loans (bps) 36.0 vs est. 54.0
- Cost of Risk 3.5 vs est. 7.5
- OpInc/RWA (bps) 99 vs est. 99
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BUNDS: A very Busy Day ahead - PMIs, Supply and Speakers
- This was one of lightest trading session for Bund overnight and in an extremely tight 6 ticks range.
- Even Rates (Euribor), the strip was seeing under 1k lots, as the street wait on the Prelim PMIs from Europe, UK, US and Speakers, including Fed Powell.
- One of the Main focus throughout this Week is on the Fed speakers given the splits in the last FOMC meeting.
- Initial support for Bund was seen at 128.04, this held Yesterday after printing a 128.01 low.
- Below the latter, opens to 127.61.
- Some desks might look at Yesterday's high of 128.41 for the first resistance, but better will now be seen towards 128.82, followed by the 129.13 gap, tested that level to the tick during the last FOMC meeting.
- As mentioned, PMIs and Fed Speakers will be at the forefront for Today's session, but supply will also be in play.
- SUPPLY: Netherlands €5bn 2056, UK £1.5bn 2056 (equates to 24.9k Gilt) could weigh, German €4.5bn Schatz (equates to 42k Schatz) should weigh into the bidding deadline, and US sells $69bn of 2yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: Portugal 8yr Benchmark/€2054 Tap.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Muller, Kocher, Cipollone, BoE Pill, Fed Goolsbee (x2), Bowman, Bostic, and of course Powell.
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
- RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
- RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 119.80 @ Close Sep 22
- SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
- SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Trading Below Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
- RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 91.11/82 20-day EMA / High Sep 11
- PRICE: 90.81 @ Close Sep 22
- SUP 1: 90.65/60 Low Sep 2 / 22
- SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support
Gilt futures gapped lower last Friday extending the pullback from its recent highs. Despite the sell-off, a bull cycle remains intact and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support lies at 90.65 (pierced), Sep 5 low.
