NORWAY: Seasonally Adjusted April CPI-ATE Flat; Marginal Support For June Cut
The Norwegian April inflation print will marginally support the case for a June cut, but there is too much time – and data- between now and June 19 to have much confidence in that view at this stage, particularly given Norges Bank’s cautious stance. Seasonally adjusted CPI-ATE inflation was 0.00% in April, pulling 3m/3m inflation momentum down to 4.21% (vs 4.33% prior). Overall, seasonally weak food prices were offset by seasonally strong airfares – both a function of the timing of Easter.
- NSA CPI-ATE inflation was 3.0% Y/Y vs 3.4% prior, with analysts and Norges Bank expecting a 3.2% reading.
- The NSA pullback in food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation to 3.31% Y/Y (vs 8.74% prior) was larger than several analysts had pencilled in for April.
- Overall domestic consumer goods – including agricultural products – eased to 4.51% Y/Y (vs 7.61% prior), the lowest since October 2024. Meanwhile, imported consumer goods dipped to 0.31% Y/Y (vs 1.19% prior). Norges Bank no longer publishes monthly projections for imported goods inflation, but expects Q2 Y/Y growth at 1.3% (vs 1.2% in Q1).
- Services ex-rent was pulled higher by airfares (26.1% Y/Y vs 1.1% prior), but there was some offset in the recreation and culture (2.72% Y/Y vs 2.97% prior) and restaurant and hotels (3.29% Y/Y vs 3.45% prior) components. Overall, services ex-rent prices rise 4.31% Y/Y (vs 3.71% prior). Rents eased for the second consecutive month to 3.88% Y/Y (vs 3.98% prior).
- Headline CPI inflation was 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior), in line with consensus but two tenths below Norges Bank's projections.
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USD: In the red against G10s
- Surprisingly, the EUR was one of the best overnight performer going into the European session as EU Tariffs come into effect, after the White House said that it will press on.
- Resistance in the EURUSD is seen at 1.1144 High Oct 1 2024 / High Apr 3 and the bull trigger.
- The SEK has taken over the EUR as the best early performer, up 0.96% and through Yesterday's low in USDSEK, but still well within this Week's wide range.
- USDJPY has seen another wide 178 pips range overnight session, acted as a Safer Haven, but USDJPY has nearly bounced 100 pips off its low to trade near the mid 144.58/146.36 (low/high) range.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Gap Lower Exposes Key Resistance
- RES 4: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 18.26/119.07 High Apr 8 / 4
- RES 1: 117.45 Yesterday’s low and a gap high on the daily chart
- PRICE: 116.61 @ 07:16 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: 116.06 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 115.53 0.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 - Apr 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 115.00 Round number support
BTP futures have gapped sharply lower today, confirming a reversal of the bull cycle between Mar 14 - Apr 4. The move down exposes key support at 115.75, the Mar 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 117.45, yesterday’s low and a gap high on the daily chart. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a potential bull theme.
US TSY FUTURES: TU Blocked
Latest block trade lodged at 07:06:46 London/02:06:46 NY:
- TUM5 2,528 lots blocked at 103-28, looks like a seller.
- DV01 ~$96.5K
