PERU: Scotiabank Sees March GDP Growth Surpassing 4%
Apr-16 17:26
- Scotiabank says that lower GDP growth in February reflects temporary factors and was not a change in trend. Looking forward, they believe that GDP growth in March is likely to surpass 4.0% y/y, although this too will reflect a calendar issue. They note that leading indicators for March are coming in much stronger than was the case for February.
- Moreover, GDP growth continues to find support in the unexpectedly strong performance of global copper and gold prices. The longer high metal prices persist, the longer Peru’s healthy growth trend will be able to continue.
- March is also still too soon to feel the impact of the worldwide tariff wars. In their view, the impact of recent US tariff policy is not likely to be felt for, perhaps, a couple of quarters yet.
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US: FED Reverse Repo Operation: Back Below $100B
Mar-17 17:20
RRP usage retreats well below $100B to $89.496B this afternoon from $126.234B Friday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties at 25 from 29 prior.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Mar-17 17:20
- EUR/USD: Mar19 $1.0800(E1.5bln), $1.0900(E1.3bln); Mar20 $1.0900-10(E1.3bln); Mar21 $1.0900(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Mar20 Y145.00($1.2bln); Mar21 Y149.00($1.2bln), Y149.85-00($1.7bln)
- AUD/USD: Mar20 $0.6400-15(A$1.5bln)
- USD/CAD: Mar19 C$1.4565($1.6bln); Mar21 C$1.4300($1.6bln)
FOREX: GBPUSD Set to Close at Fresh 4-Month Highs, Eyes US Election Peak
Mar-17 17:19
- While GBP has been underperforming the likes of AUD and NZD to start the week, the broad dollar offer has also assisted GBPUSD to print a fresh four-month high as the pair edges ever closer to the psychological 1.3000 mark.
- A close at current levels would be the highest daily close since the US election and should keep attention firmly on the November 06 high of 1.3048. GBPUSD’s technical backdrop is highlighting a clear dominant uptrend, and above this level, targets for a stronger rally include 1.3119 (76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg) and 1.3175 (Oct 4 2024 high).
- It’s another busy week for the UK with both the BOE decision and labour market data due on Thursday. An unchanged Bank Rate is almost universally expected here: markets are pricing a close to zero probability of a move and we are yet to see a sellside preview expecting anything other than an on hold decision. The main focus is likely to be on the vote split and any change to the guidance.
