SWEDEN: Savings Rate Assumptions Will Be Key To Riksbank Sep Decision
The Swedish seasonally adjusted household net saving rate rose to 16.2% in Q2, up from 14.9% in Q1 for the highest since Q2 2024 (and before that, Q1 2021).
- Even though disposable income growth is extending further into positive territory, and past Riksbank rate cuts have reduced the burden of interest payments, households remain cautious. This is a dynamic the Riksbank Executive Board are cognizant of, and may yet be a reason to cut rates next week against market pricing.
- The still-weak labour market and elevated general economic uncertainty are some factors behind the upward drift in the savings rate in recent years.
- As indicted by Governor Thedéen in a recent interview, Riksbank assumptions around the savings rate will be important at next week’s decision, because they will influence the size of the fiscal multiplier applied to the government’s 2026 budget bill policies.
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GOLD TECHS: Trading In A Range
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23
- PRICE: $3336.7 @ 07:25 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
BUNDS: The Yield resistance holds
- There's very little change for Bund going into the European session, the 2.80% Yield level has again held Yesterday, after also holding on Friday.
- As such, the initial support in Bund remains unchanged at around 128.57, printed a 128.64 low in Futures and a 2.791% high in Yield on Friday.
- Small resistance is at 129.18, followed by 129.62.
- There are no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, and the Canadian CPI will be the only notable release for North America Today.
- Main Focus this Week is on the UK CPI (wed), PMIs (thu), Japan CPI, and all eyes on Powell (fri).
- SUPPLY: UK £1.6bn 2035 Linkers (won't impact Gilts). Germany €4.5bn 5yr Bobl (equates to 42k Bobl) should weigh into the Bidding Deadline.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Bowman (x2).
BRENT TECHS: (V5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $66.30 @ 07:09 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
