EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co.: FVs $ L3Y & 10Y Sukuk deals
(SRCSUK; A1/A/A+)
IPT L3Y: T+105bp FV L3Y: T+84bp
IPT 10Y: T+115bp FV 10Y: T+90bp
- We see FVs at z+110bp or T+84bp and z+140bp or T+90bp, respectively. For reference, Saudi Arabia’s real estate financing services provider Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co. (SRC) is in the primary market with a $ dual-tranche deal in Sukuk format (issuer ticker: SRCSUK) with L3Y and 10Y tenors.
- To gain some perspective, we look at how secondary spreads have moved since the Issuer last tapped investors’ demand back in February (see chart below). With some 10bp of tightening over that period, SRCSUK spread move scores in between those registered by PIFKSA and KSA’s Sukuk curves.
- Looking at the proposed L3Y tenor deal, we see a 10bp spread pick up vs the seasoned SRCSUK 5 Feb28 charting at z+100bp or T+76bp (4.36% yield area), having launched at T+80bp.
- Looking at the proposed 10Y tenor deal, we see a 12bp spread pick up vs the seasoned SRCSUK 5.375 Feb35, charting at z+128bp or T+74bp (4.88% yield area), having launched at T+98bp.
For context, SRC is fully owned and guaranteed by PIFKSA.
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Historical bullets
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria New 7-Year RAGB: Books open
- E3bln WNG of the new 7-year Sep-32 RAGB
- Guidance: MS+33 area
- Format: Reg S, Bearer, 144A eligible, CAC
- Settlement: 02 September 2025 (T+5)
- Maturity: 20 September 2032 (7Y)
- Size: EUR 3 billion (Will not grow, excluding potential issuer retention)
- Coupon: TBD, Fixed, Ann., ACT/ACT (Long 1st to 20 September 2026)
- ISIN: AT0000A3NY15
- Bookrunners: BofA / DB(DM/B&D) / Erste Group / HSBC / JPM / Raiffeisen Bank International
- Timing: Books open, today's business
From market source
GILTS: Testing the 2.75% level on the Open
A big move for Gilt on the Open, some of the calls were 90.90/91.00, it was netting at 90.87, but down 50 ticks and through session lows.
The Dec is still not front Month, but expected to be Today.
Immediate support in G Z5 is at 90.31, while the next Yield levels are still at:
- 4.800% = 89.98.
- 4.921% = 88.93.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- PRICE: $38.700 @ 08:03 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: $37.282/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
- SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg
- SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2
Trend signals in Silver are unchanged and remain bullish. Prices have recently recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.282. A clear break of the average is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, the resumption of gains opens the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.
