OIL: Saudi Considering Further Output Increases
Jun-04 22:32
Oil prices are down around a percent driven by Saudi comments that it could add 411kbd to output in both August and September. The difficulty in agreeing to trade deals also likely weighed as President Trump said that it is “extremely hard” to make a deal with China. WTI is holding just above its 50-day EMA. The USD index is down 0.4%.
- WTI fell 1.1% to $62.74/bbl, holding above the 50-day EMA at $62.51, and is still up 3.2% this week. A sustained break of the 50-day EMA would open $65.82 and highlight a stronger reversal. The benchmark fell to $62.17 after it had reached $63.96. It has started today around $62.69.
- Brent is down 1.1% to $64.91/bbl, just below the 50-day EMA at $65.29. It is 3.4% higher this week but these gains are still seen as corrective. During the European session it rose to $65.95 but then later fell to $64.27. The bear trigger is at $57.78.
- With the impact of US tariffs and the associated uncertainty still too soon to ascertain, Saudi Arabia may easily change its position on further output increases if data show a slowdown in global growth and thus energy demand. But it wants to increase production to make the most of summer travel demand, according to Bloomberg.
- Saudi reduced prices for shipments to Asia but it was less than expected.
- The EIA reported a 4.3mn barrels US crude inventory drawdown last week, the second consecutive fall. There were large product builds though as the refinery utilisation rate rose 3.2pp to 93.4% to prepare for the driving season but the rate is down 2pp on the same time last year. Gasoline stocks rose 5.2mn barrels and distillate 4.2mn, while gasoline demand fell 1.19mbd.
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
May-05 22:27
- Bank of Thailand to Sell THB45bn of 364-Days Bills
- Bank of Thailand to Sell THB60bn of 91-Days Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 186D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 33D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 92D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 277D SVBI Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$17 Billion 182-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$62.589 Billion 91-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$3 Billion 364-Day Bills
- Philippines To Sell PHP 30.0Bln 2032 Bonds (PIBD1032I695*)
- Indonesia To Sell 2030 Bonds (FR0104)
- Indonesia To Sell 2040 Bonds (FR0106)
- Indonesia To Sell 2035 Bonds (FR0103)
- Indonesia To Sell 2054 Bonds (FR0102)
- Indonesia To Sell 2045 Bonds (FR0107)
- Indonesia To Sell 2064 Bonds (FR0105)
- Indonesia To Sell 91D Bills (SPN12250807)
- Indonesia To Sell 364D Bills (SPN12260507)
AUD: AUDUSD In Uptrend, Spending & Building Data Coming Up
May-05 22:26
Aussie was one of the better performers on Monday with all of the G10 rising against the US dollar except CAD (USD BBDXY -0.3%). AUDUSD rose to a peak of 0.6494 before moderating to finish up 0.5% to 0.6468 with the greenback remaining nervous over the possibility of trade deals. President Trump said that there could be a number announced by the end of the week with Asian countries Japan, South Korea and India possibly the first.
- AUDUSD is currently trading around 0.6467 holding above the 20-day EMA at 0.6356. The uptrend continues with moving average studies in bull mode. Initial resistance is 0.6494 with the focus on 0.6528.
- The yen outperformed the G10 leaving AUDJPY down 0.5% to 92.95, close to the intraday low. It is currently around this level.
- AUDNZD range traded and is around 1.0838 off the intraday low of 1.0814.
- AUDEUR spent most of European and US trading above 0.5710. It is up 0.2% to 0.5716 after a high of 0.5725. AUDGBP is 0.1% higher at 0.4865 after rising to 0.4882.
- Equities were mixed with the S&P -0.6% but Euro stoxx flat. US futures have started the day slightly lower. Oil prices are off their intraday trough but still down with WTI -1.8% to $57.23/bbl. Copper is 0.7% higher and iron ore remains around $97/t.
- Today March household spending prints and is forecast to rise 0.2% m/m & 3.9% y/y. There are also building approvals which are expected to fall again.
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
May-05 22:26
| 1930GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | Singapore S&P Global PMI APR |
| 2000GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines CPI YoY APR |
| 2000GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines CPI NSA MoM APR |
| 2045GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | Caixin China PMI Composite |
| 2105GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | Caixin China PMI Services |
| 2105GMT | 1005HKT | 1205AEDT | Vietnam CPI YoY APR |
| 2200GMT | 1005HKT | 1205AEDT | Vietnam Trade Balance APR |
| 0000GMT | 1005HKT | 1205AEDT | Vietnam Exports YoY APR |
| 0330GMT | 1005HKT | 1205AEDT | Vietnam Imports YoY APR |
| 0330GMT | 1005HKT | 1205AEDT | Vietnam Industrial Production YoY APR |
| 0330GMT | 1005HKT | 1205AEDT | Vietnam Retail Sales YoY APR |
| 0800GMT | 1100HKT | 1300AEDT | Thailand CPI YoY APR |
| 0800GMT | 1100HKT | 1300AEDT | Thailand CPI NSA MoM APR |
| 1300GMT | 1100HKT | 1300AEDT | Thailand CPI Core YoY APR |
| 1300GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | HSBC India PMI Composite |
| 1300GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | HSBC India PMI Services |
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