SOUTH AFRICA: SARB Says Risks to Inflation Are to the Upside
Jan-30 13:05
- “SARB sees inflation avg 3.9% in 2025; saw 4%” (BBG)
- “SARB sees inflation avg 4.6% in 2026; unchanged from pvs. Est.”
- “SARB sees core inflation avg 4.4% in 2026; same as pvs est.”
- “SARB sees 2024 4Q GDP growth at 1.3% q/q” (BBG)
- “SARB raises 2025 GDP growth est. to 1.8% from 1.7%”
- “SARB sees S. Africa GDP growth at 1.8% in 2026, 2% in 2027”
- "SARB model sees repo rate 7.39% by end '25; saw 7.4%"
- “SARB model sees repo rate 7.29% by end '26; saw 7.27%”
- “SARB risks to inflation outlook are to the upside"
- "SARB says medium-term inflation outlook is uncertain"
- "SARB says risks to growth forecast are balanced"
- "SARB sees CPI in lower half of target band in H1’25, 4.6% in Q4"
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Dec-31 13:03
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.37% (-0.09), volume: $2.290T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $844B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $798B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US: Republicans Outnumber Democrats For First Time In Decades
Dec-31 12:47
New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.
- Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights notes: “Historically, this is practically unheard of. Democrats have held a longstanding advantage in party identification that dates back to the New Deal, with Republicans drawing even on only a couple of occasions — the 1994 Republican Revolution and the immediate post-9/11 period.”
- Ruffini continues: “We are now entering a period where the roughly even party ID split reflects the highly competitive nature of national elections. All things being equal we should expect a 50-50 political environment to yield tied party ID, rather than a 3- or 4-point Democratic ID edge. Good Democratic years will mean more Democratic identifiers in the electorate, and good Republican years will mean more Republican identifiers.”
Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
Source: Gallup
STIR: Large Sep'25/Dec'25 SOFR Skew Spread Package
Dec-31 12:45
Checking direction on skew package:
- 24,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.50 call spds ref 96.035 vs.
- 12,000 SFRZ5 95.50 puts ref 96.07
