RATINGS: S&P On France Set To Headline After Close

German Q1 flash GDP came in in line with consensus at 0.2% Q/Q (vs 0.2% cons; -0.2% Q4). On an annual basis, GDP printed -0.2% (vs -0.2% cons and prior). Broadly, German real GDP continues to sideline - which it has since about 2022.

• Few details are provided in the flash release, but Destatis notes that private consumption as well as investments contributed positively in Q1. We've flagged a possible positive consumption contribution following this morning's retail sales data.
• IFO sees downside risk for the months ahead as US tariff frontrunning, which they think has contributed to the positive print this time, might reverse soon. They think negative growth is "possible" again.
• For 2025 in total, the (outgoing) government recently downwardly revised its official forecast by 0.3% to 0.0%, now broadly matching the 'joint economic forecast' of a set of research institutes, who are looking for 0.1% growth this year.

Of note:

EURUSD 2.84bn at 1.1375/1.1395.

USDJPY 1.76bn at 142.00.

USDJPY 1.5bn at 143.00/143.10 (thu).

USDCAD 2.45bn at 1.3865/1.3870 (mon).

USDCNY 1.51bn at 7.300 (tue).

• EURUSD: 1.1340 (300mln), 1.1375 (377mln), 1.1380 (600mln), 1.1385 (403mln), 1.1390 (1.12bn), 1.1395 (343mln), 1.1425 (558mln).
• USDJPY: 142.00 (1.76bn), 143.00 (264mln).
• USDCAD: 1.3825 (293mln).
• NZDUSD: 0.5950 (521mln).

Latest block trade lodged at 09:09:45 London/04:09:45 NY:

• TYM5 5K lots blocked at 112-06+, looks like a seller.
• DV01 ~$322K.