LNG: Sanctions Continue to Weigh on Russian LNG Exports
Russian LNG exports in July fell 5% year-on-year and 11.2% lower than June to 1.9m tons, LSEG preliminary data showed, as US sanctions on companies and vessels linked to Russia's new Arctic LNG 2 continue to weigh.
- January-July exports fell 4.5% year on year to 17.1m metric tons.
- Russian LNG exports to Europe fell by 20.6% year on year in July to 850k tons, while January-July exports fell 4.7% year on year to 8.7m tons.
- Yamal LNG cut total exports in July by 10.4% year-on-year to the lowest since December 2023 at 1.29m tons. Year to date exports decreased by 1.8% to 11m tons.
- The Arctic LNG 2 project shipped two cargoes in July but both tankers remain at sea with a load of 0.14m tons.
- Sakhalin-2 raised exports 280k tons on the year to 590k tons in July while January -July exports rose to 5.6m tons from 5.2m tons the year prior.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - House Takes Up Big Beautiful Bill
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- President Donald Trump has no public events on his schedule, indicating he will spend the day on the phone with wavering House Republicans to coax the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ over the finish line.
- After a 26-hour vote-a-rama the Senate passed the OBBB in a 51-50 vote, with VP JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote.
- Early this morning, the House Rules Committee voted 7-6 to advance the package to the House floor. Conservative hardliners on the panel - Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC) - voted with Democrats, signalling House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will face stiff opposition from his conservative flank.
- Johnson is likely to follow the playbook he has used in previous House votes, including leveraging Trump’s range of coercive tools. Our baseline scenario is that this strategy will succeed again, but opposition may be more entrenched this time.
- Trump renewed threats to unilaterally impose tariff rates on trading partners, including suggesting a tariff rate upwards of 30% on Japan. Trump was more positive about a trade deal with India.
- The Pentagon has halted the delivery of Patriot air-defence missiles and other key munitions to Ukraine, raising concerns that Trump is winding down support for Kyiv.
- Trump said Israel has accepted the terms of a Gaza ceasefire.
- Iran says US airstrikes caused "serious and heavy damage" to its Fordow nuclear facility.
- Poll of the Day: Most investors foresee volatility persisting through 2025.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
GBP: Pair Holds Weakness Despite Starmer's Backing of Reeves
GBP/USD holding the weakness on the back of speculation surrounding a potential resignation of the Chancellor - these last headlines seemingly looking to draw a line under the rumours, but GBP is comfortably the poorest performer in G10 on this. This sensitivity to politics may reinforce the importance of Reeves' fiscal rules commitments for markets - with market fallout on these unbased rumours serving as a reminder of potential instability should a more fiscally expansive Chancellor serve for the remainder of Starmer's first parliament.
- GBP/USD through to new weekly lows on this move: exposing 1.3629 support as the next downside level, while EUR/GBP now looks to have made a clean break of 0.8592.
- No surprise to see strong volumes crossing in currency futures on this move: GBP futures saw near 6k contracts trade inside 60 seconds on the move - helping tip today's cumulative activity to 75% above average for this time of day.
US TSYS: Post-ADP Jobs React
- Treasury futures rebound after June ADP data shows unexpected job losses
- Currently, Sep'25 10Y trades -1.5 at 111-26 (111-18.5L / 111-30.5H).
- Attention is on the next important resistance at 112-15, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 steep sell-off.
- Curves steeper: 2s10s +3.757 at 50.470; 5s30s +4.403 at 97.167.
- Cross asset: Bbg US$ index pares gains: 1190.64 (+1.13), stocks still flat SPX eminis 0.0 at 6248.75), crude firmer (WTI +0.78 at 66.23), Gold firmer at 3347.60.
