EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Sainsbury; FINAL
(SBRYLN; Baa3/BBB; Stable)
Tad unsurprising it is going through FVs - first visit in 10-years and no other IG peers to diversify Tesco exposure with. We do view Tesco as the firmer credit to be clear.
- £250m 5.4y UKT +93 vs. FV +106 (-13 through)
(eqv. MS+112/5.14% vs. FV MS+125/5.27%)- Books > £2.4b, -22 from IPT
** Note Bloomberg has 5.5Y (July 29th) we have 5.4Y (June 29th) from syndicate comm's.
- £300m 10y UKT +108 vs. FV +122 (-14 through)
(eqv. MS+161/5.68% vs. FV MS+175/5.82%)- books >£2.8b, -27 from IPT
Thoughts; https://mni.marketnews.com/42oVTnY
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Bunds Remains Intact
- In the FI space, the current trend cycle in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for a move towards 133.22, the 76.4% retracement level. First key resistance to watch is 135.02, the 20-day EMA. A move above this level would signal a possible reversal.
- A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 91.73, a 4.236 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.64, the Dec 17 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Build Permits, Dur/Cap Goods, Home Sales
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Dec-23 0830 Building Permits (1.505M, --); MoM (6.1%, --)
- Dec-23 0830 Durable Goods Orders (0.3%, -0.3%)
- Dec-23 0830 Durables Ex Transportation (0.2%, 0.2%)
- Dec-23 0830 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-0.2%, 0.1%)
- Dec-23 0830 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (0.3%, 0.2%)
- Dec-23 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-0.40, -0.12)
- Dec-23 US Tsy $81B 13W & $72B 26W bill auctions
- Dec-23 1000 New Home Sales (610k, 670k); MoM (-17.3%, 9.8%)
- Dec-23 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (111.7, 113.2)
- Dec-23 1000 Conf. Board Present Situation (140.9, --)
- Dec-23 1000 Conf. Board Expectations (92.3, --)
- Dec-23 1130 US Tsy $48B 52W & $65B 42D CMB auctions
- Dec-23 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y note auction (91282CME8)
STIR: OI Signals Short Cover In SOFR, Possible SFRZ4/Z5 Steepener Unwinds
OI data points to net short cover in most SOFR futures on Friday, as PCE data helped pull contracts away from the multi-month lows registered around last week’s FOMC decision.
- This is an approximation given that SFRZ4 was unchanged at settlement time.
- Also note that the fairly sizeable reduction in both SFRZ4 & Z5 OI means that spread activity in SFRZ4/Z5 may have factored into positioning swings, via unwinds of existing steepener positions.
| 20-Dec-24 | 19-Dec-24 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,197,455 | 1,254,109 | -56,654 | Whites | -70,274 |
SFRH5 | 1,091,763 | 1,095,452 | -3,689 | Reds | -68,417 |
SFRM5 | 1,011,913 | 1,019,262 | -7,349 | Greens | -12,254 |
SFRU5 | 835,919 | 838,501 | -2,582 | Blues | +46 |
SFRZ5 | 905,142 | 952,856 | -47,714 |
|
|
SFRH6 | 553,603 | 563,191 | -9,588 |
|
|
SFRM6 | 617,734 | 624,065 | -6,331 |
|
|
SFRU6 | 609,956 | 614,740 | -4,784 |
|
|
SFRZ6 | 681,871 | 694,941 | -13,070 |
|
|
SFRH7 | 445,931 | 449,450 | -3,519 |
|
|
SFRM7 | 365,450 | 359,095 | +6,355 |
|
|
SFRU7 | 287,796 | 289,816 | -2,020 |
|
|
SFRZ7 | 292,271 | 289,592 | +2,679 |
|
|
SFRH8 | 225,368 | 227,761 | -2,393 |
|
|
SFRM8 | 158,392 | 157,894 | +498 |
|
|
SFRU8 | 118,009 | 118,747 | -738 |
|
|
