US TSYS: Safe Haven Raises Rates in Lead-Up to FOMC Policy Annc
- Rising Middle East tensions included chances the US will join the war lent to the second half risk-off support for Treasuries Tuesday. Otherwise, markets await Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement including a Summary of Economic Projections (Dots).
- Pres Trump: "We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
- We expect that the June FOMC meeting communications will reflect an increasingly patient attitude since May and certainly since March’s projections.
- Cross asset update: stocks ebbed in the second half (SPX eminis -44.75 at 6045.0), West Texas crude climbed to early July 2024 highs (WTI +3.39 at 75.16), while Bbg US$ index climbed to June 11 highs (BBDXY +6.43 at 1209.02).
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures trades +12.5 at 110-28 vs. 111-00 high, below key resistance and its recent high of 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement.
- Curves flatter, 2s10s -4.250 at 43.309, 5s30s -1.837 at 90.209. 10Y yield at 4.3849% vs. 4.3770% low.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Trend Condition
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4026 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
- PRICE: 1.3985 @ 19:49 BST May 16
- SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD maintains a firmer short-term tone for now. Despite the latest move higher, the trend condition remains bearish and recent strength is considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 6 reinforces the bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4026, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7
- PRICE: 0.6404 @ 19:46 BST May 16
- SUP 1: 0.6354 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. The May 13 rally signals the end of the corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6354, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug ‘24 sell-off
- RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 1: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024
- PRICE: 162.66 @ 19:43 GMT May 16
- SUP 1: 162.21 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
- SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
EURJPY has pulled back from its recent high. The move down is for now, considered corrective. The latest bullish extension paves the way for a climb towards 165.43, the Nov 8 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 162.21, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal. This would open 161.60 initially, the May 6 low.
