EU UTILITIES: RWE (RWE Baa2/NR/BBB+): FY24 Results
Mar-20 11:38
Slightly credit positive; we expect less issuance on lower investments and asset risk. Leverage is expected to be at the low end of target.
- RWE reported adj. EBITDA 2-3% ahead of consensus/guidance, at +3% YoY.
- Leverage was unchanged QoQ at 2x.
- FY25 adj. EBITDA guidance is 2% below consensus at midpoint. Leverage is seen at the low end of 3-3.5x target range.
- 2025-2030 capex plans have been reduced ~25% or €11bn to €35bn. This is due to the uncertain investment environment, with geopolitical tensions, tariffs, inflation, rates and supply chain constraints cited as factors. It was increased its return requirements as a result. Leverage will now be targeted at the lower end of the 3-3.5x range. It already flagged slowing investment for the two coming years ahead at 3Q24 on uncertainty.
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ESM ISSUANCE: 6-Month ESM-Bill Auction Results
Feb-18 11:32
| Type | 6-month bills |
| Maturity | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.099bln |
| Target | E1.1bln |
| Previous | E1.084bln |
| Avg yield | 2.339% |
| Previous | 2.485% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.53x |
| Previous | 3.51x |
| Previous date | Jan 21, 2025 |
EQUITIES: Estoxx Put Spread
Feb-18 11:31
SX5E (19th Dec) 4900/4300ps, bought for 67.2 in 14k.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Support Remains Exposed
Feb-18 11:28
- In FX, a bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains have reinforced current conditions and strengthened a short-term reversal signal on Feb 3 - a hammer. This suggests scope for an extension near-term. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 1.0432, and sights are on 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0280, the Feb 10 low.
- A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. A recent breach of resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Furthermore, 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would strengthen current conditions and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement. Key short-term support is 1.2333, the Feb 11 low. First support lies at 1.2466, the 20-day EMA.
- USDJPY continues to trade below the Feb 12 high. Recent weakness highlights that - for now - a key resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 154.24, remains intact. A clear break of the EMA is required to confirm a stronger bullish reversal. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.
