OIL: Russia's O&G Revenue to Hit Lowest Since August 2020

• Worth monitoring some headlines from SNB VP Antoine Martin – taken from presentation slides which are accessible here.
• In line with previous rhetoric so far: “Inflation seen rising slightly in next quarters”, re-upping the conditional inflation forecast from the September meeting.

SX5E (19th June) 6000/6500cs 1x1.5, bought for 106.5 in 7k (7kx10.5k)

Buxl ASWs and swap spreads are set to register fresh closing highs for the current widening cycle.

• Today’s widening comes even as the long end lags in outright bond trade (Buxl yields little changed, ~2bp off session highs).
• While broader fixed income demand was noted in the wake of Tuesday’s U.S. weekly ADP employment data, the extension of the widening move was already in play before that data crossed.
• Elsewhere, the German debt brake proposal from the Bundesbank was a probably a secondary factor in late Tuesday/early Wednesday trade, with the bulk of Tuesday’s move taking place before those headlines crossed.
• Indeed, Commerzbank argue that “while it would fit the picture of long-term fiscal restraint, yesterday's noticeable 30-Year Bund swap spread richening was probably not directly triggered by the Bundesbank proposal. Speculation about looming Dutch paying flows in swaps could be behind it. While we see scope for more ultra-long Bund ASW richening in Q1, amid increased paying interest from Dutch pension fonds, the risk is that long UB positions are already a consensus trade”.