OIL: Russian Oil Output Seen Stable Despite Toughest Spell in 5 Years
Aug-20 17:49
Russia’s oil output and exports will remain steady this year, even as the industry goes through its most challenging period since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Bloomberg citing a Moscow-based consultant.
- Russia’s crude and condensate production is seen flat at 10.3m b/d in 2025 and 10.4m b/d in the next two years, Kasatkin Consulting said.
- Exports should hold at 4.8m b/d.
- Russia’s oil industry has been a target for Western sanctions since the country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
- Russia has adapted to sanctions and price caps by re-routing its oil to new markets and building a large shadow fleet of tankers.
- Lower global crude prices and a stronger rouble add to challenges facing Russia’s producers.
- Kasatkin Consulting forecasts that the average Urals price will fall by over 13% to $59/b in 2025, with taxes accounting for about 42% of the price.
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SECURITY: Ukraine-Russia Meeting Planned Wednesday: Bloomberg
Jul-21 17:46
*ZELENSKIY: MEETING WITH RUSSIA IN TURKEY PLANNED FOR WEDNESDAY - bbg
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bull Flatter On Trans-Atlantic Tariff Threats
Jul-21 17:39
European curves bull flattened Monday.
- The EGB / Gilt rally started overnight following a weekend Bloomberg report that the EU was set to formulate a plan to retaliate against the US in case of a "no deal" scenario on tariffs by the White House-set Aug 1 deadline.
- This followed Friday's FT report that US President Trump was seeking a minimum 15-20% EU tariff.
- Indeed the trade conflict appeared to be a broader undercurrent, with some anticipation of the swiftly-approaching Aug 1 date more broadly boosting long-end FI and weakening the USD (although a rise in equities appeared to be an outlier in this move).
- Helping the bullish move follow through in mid-afternoon was a well-received BoE long-end APF sale which saw bull flattening extend.
- Carrying on from last week's trend, Gilts underperformed, but both the UK and German curves bull flattened on the day.
- Periphery and semi-core EGB spreads tightened, with 10Y OAT/Bund down more than 2bp.
- This week's calendar highlights include flash PMIs and of course the ECB decision Thursday - our preview of the latter will be out Tuesday.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 4.6bps at 1.824%, 5-Yr is down 7.2bps at 2.168%, 10-Yr is down 8.2bps at 2.613%, and 30-Yr is down 9.3bps at 3.139%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 3.3bps at 3.869%, 5-Yr is down 5.4bps at 4.035%, 10-Yr is down 7.1bps at 4.603%, and 30-Yr is down 8.3bps at 5.428%.
- Italian BTP spread down 1.8bps at 83.7bps / French OAT down 2.5bps at 67.9bps
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Interview with British Columbia's Energy Minister
Jul-21 17:35
- MNI interviews British Columbia's energy minister on energy sector projects -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
