OIL PRODUCTS: Russian Diesel & Naphtha Exports Slump as Refining Slows
Sep-11 16:25
Russian exports of petroleum products have shrunk in early September, led by steep declines in diesel and naphtha shipments, as drone attacks curb refining output, Bloomberg said.
- Total refined product exports dropped to 1.96m b/d over Sep. 1-7, putting the month of September on track for its lowest average in about a year and down 10% from August.
- Sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on some major refineries have cut Russian processing rates through much of August to the weakest levels since May 2022
- With runs still falling in September, officials are considering extending the gasoline export ban through October and have urged producers to divert some diesel volumes to the domestic market.
- Diesel and gasoil exports across Sep. 1-7 are down 18% on whole-month August at 676k b/d.
- Fuel oil exports have jumped to 909k b/d, suggesting some reduced refining activity as this product requires less processing. This is up 22% on whole-month August and the highest since Feb. 2022.
- Naphtha flows are at 280k b/d, down 39% on August.
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US DATA: Increased Share Of CPI Basket Growing >3% Y/Y
Aug-12 16:21
- Whilst core goods inflation undershot expectations for a further acceleration in M/M terms, a still solid monthly clip compared to 2024 levels (0.21% M/M in July after 0.20% in June vs -0.06% M/M averaged in 2024) is starting to see an increased share of items growing in excess of 3% Y/Y.
- We calculate 24% of core goods items increased >3% Y/Y in July after 18% in June to take it further away from recent lows of 13-14% through Oct-Jan. It's the highest share since Feb 2024.
- Context is important though, as it’s above the 18.5% averaged in 2019 and 12% averaged through 2015-19 but still of course far below the highs of 75% seen in late 2022.
- The core services equivalent meanwhile increased for a third consecutive month to 62% having recently bottomed at 50% in April. It averaged 38% in 2019 and 34% in 2015-19 for a longer pre-pandemic period.
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