RUSSIA: Russia-Ukraine Talks in Istanbul; GDP, Inflation Data Due

May-16 07:29
  • Russian and Ukrainian delegations may hold negotiations in Istanbul. The Deputy Head of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration said in an interview to Bloomberg TV that Ukraine expects to make contact with Russia’s delegation in Turkey this morning for talks on an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. He didn’t specify a timing on the meeting. Meanwhile, Tass reported that a series of trilateral meetings between Russia, Ukraine, US and host Turkey will be held, with Turkey, US and Ukraine scheduled to meet at 10:45 local time (08:45 BST).
  • The Federal Statistics Service reports the 1Q GDP estimate and April inflation at 17:00BST/19:00 local time. Headline CPI is expected to edge marginally lower, from +10.34% Y/Y in March to +10.30% in April. Meanwhile, GDP is expected to rise 1.7% Y/Y.
  • Vedomosti report that the Finance Ministry has lowered its forecast for the size of the National Welfare Fund for 2025 by almost RUB 2trln and now expects it to total RUB 12.76trln, or 5.8% of GDP, at the end of the year instead of RUB 14.7trln. The fund is expected to decrease partly due to its use to balance the budget, but economists do not see any risk of the NWF being exhausted as its liquid part will be bolstered with the deposit of oil and gas revenues from last year.
  • Activity on Russia's domestic bond market stayed high in April, with corporate issuers raising RUB 927.2bln with 185 bond offerings, down only 11% from March and a record high for this month of the year, Kommersant report.

Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: Gold is heading to $3,300.00

Apr-16 07:27
  • Gold is now fast approaching the $3.3k mark, all multi cross assets (safe haven) have benefitted today on more Tariffs escalations, Gold, Core Bonds, Swissy and the Yen are all on the front foot.
  • The $3300.00 is so far providing a decent hurdle, printed a $3298.06 high.
  • A clear break through that level, opens to $3347.7 - 1.382 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing.

EGB SYNDICATION: Italy 7-year BTP / 30-year BTPei: Books open

Apr-16 07:20
7-year BTP:
  • Guidance: 3.15% Nov-31 BTP +14bps area
  • Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E7-13bln)
  • Maturity: 15 July 2032
  • ISIN: TBC
  • Coupon: Short first on 15 July 2025

30-year BTPei:

  • Guidance: 0.15% May-51 BTPei RY +38bps area
  • Size: E3bln WNG
  • Maturity: 15 July 2032
  • ISIN: TBC
  • Coupon: First full on 15 May
For both:
  • Settlement: 25 April 2025 (T+5)
  • Bookrunners: BBVA / BofA / GSBE SE / JPM (DM/B&D) / Natixis / Societe Generale
  • Timing: Books open, Today's business
From market source / MNI colour

US TSY FUTURES: FV/US Steepener Blocked

Apr-16 07:16

Latest block trade lodged at 07:53:36 London/02:53:36 NY:

  • FVM5 8.2K lots blocked at 108-09+.
  • USM5 2.8K lots blocked at 114-22.
  • Subsequent price action on the 5s20s curve points to a steepener, DV01 ~$355K.
  • 5s20s curve back towards cycle closing highs at 89.7bp, last 86.2bp.

Fig. 1: U.S. 5s20s Curve (bp)

US5s20sCurve160425

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg