ENERGY: Russia-Ukraine: Partial Ceasefire Agreed But Uncertainty Remains

RUSSIA-UKRAINE OVERVIEW - Russia and Ukraine agreed to a partial ceasefire in the Black Sea on March 25, but significant uncertainty remains around its implementation and a full ceasefire may be some way off. 

• Signs of progress towards a peace deal yesterday were bearish for both TTF and oil prices, with the market tentatively pricing in increased odds of sanctions relief on Russia’s energy sector.
• Ukraine has said the Black Sea ceasefire took effect immediately after the statement was released, though Russia has said the agreement was conditional on lifting sanctions on banks and companies involved in agricultural exports.
• President Trump said of the conditions that the Russians could be “dragging their feet,” and avoiding a full ceasefire.   
• The US said Ukraine and Russia also agreed to ‘develop measures’ to implement a ban on strikes against energy infrastructure.
• The Kremlin has said the truce on energy infrastructure took effect from March 18 for a 30 day period, though comments by Zelensky imply that Ukraine believes the energy infrastructure ceasefire took effect on March 25.
• There have so far been no reports of drones targeting energy infrastructure overnight.
• Attempts at a partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure last week were unsuccessful, with both Russia and Ukraine attacking one another’s energy infrastructure after the deal, according to the BBC.