ENERGY: Russia-Ukraine (October 15)
Oct-15 09:46
Trump again criticised Vladimir Putin during comments to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, saying the Russian leader was simply unwilling to end his war in Ukraine. “Look, I’m very disappointed because Vladimir and I had a very good relationship, probably still do,” Trump said. “He’s gotta really settle this war. And you know they have long lines waiting for gasoline in Russia right now … And all of a sudden his economy is going to collapse.”
- A drone has reportedly attacked a crude oil processing facility at the Bashneft refinery complex in Ufa on Wednesday Oct. 15, according to various Ukrainian media outlets.
- Russia’s crude processing rates fell around 60k b/d w/w to average about 4.81m b/d across Oct. 2-8 as seasonal maintenance weighed in addition to the impacts of Ukrainian drone strikes, Bloomberg reported Oct. 14 citing a person familiar with the data.
- Gazprom’s Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical plant is operating normally following repeated Ukrainian drone strikes, according to the regional governor cited by Bloomberg.
- A Russian official said a local ceasefire would be needed as he announced work would begin at the end of this week to restore external power to the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station.
- U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Monday “firepower” is coming to Ukraine through European nations’ purchases of US weapons, but whether that includes American-made Tomahawk missiles is still not clear.
- Zelensky is expected to push for access to the American Tomahawks, which would allow it to strike deep within Russia and potentially put Moscow within range, when he meets with Trump on Friday at the White House.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Tests Resistance
Sep-15 09:44
- In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared reinforcing a bull cycle. This signals scope for 1.1829, the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1639.
- A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and price is trading at its recent highs. The rally that started Sep 3 has retraced the steep Sep 2 sell-off and highlights a stronger bullish development. This confirms the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Sights are on resistance at 1.3595 (pierced), the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 1.3475, the 50-day EMA.
- USDJPY continues to trade inside a range. Key short-term support to watch is 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and a range breakout. This would expose 145.40, 50% of the Apr - Aug upleg. On the upside, clearance of 149.14, the Sep 3 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
FOREX: AUDUSD Consolidating Recent Breakout, Eyes Nov 07 Highs
Sep-15 09:43
- The dollar index has operated within a 21 pip range on Monday, as markets await a stacked data and central bank calendar this week, headlined by the Fed. While moves remain moderate, the likes of AUD and GBP are outperforming early Monday in G10 FX.
- This has allowed AUDUSD to rise back towards cycle highs. Last week’s gains plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the technical uptrend, and the pair has narrowed the gap substantially to the US election related highs at 0.6688. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and sights will be on 0.6729, the 1.236 projection of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing.
- JP Morgan have noted the AUDUSD impulsive rally has lifted the pair into the 0.6658-0.6722 resistance zone. This includes the Nov 2021 trend line and the confluence of medium-term Fibonacci retracement levels. While JPM suspect the pair can pause near that resistance, there is no evidence that the rally is exhausted at this point.
- Separately, it is worth highlighting that this morning’s high for AUDNZD has matched a very significant resistance point for the cross at 1.1180. A breach of the level would place the cross at the highest level since late 2022, and above here, 1.1250 marks the next notable level, the 76.4% retracement point of the 2022 selloff. We noted last week that BofA forecasts imply further AUDNZD appreciation, and they have a current 2026 year-end forecast of 1.15.
DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: DTC Results
Sep-15 09:39
| Type | 4.5-month DTC | 5.5-month DTC |
| Maturity | Jan 29, 2026 | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.92bln | E1.13bln |
| Target | E1.0-2.0bln | E1.0-2.0bln |
| Previous | E1.54bln | E1.44bln |
| Avg yield | 1.964% | 1.970% |
| Previous | 1.945% | 1.954% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.86x | 1.96x |
| Previous | 1.31x | 1.44x |
| Previous date | Aug 18, 2025 | Sep 01, 2025 |
