ENERGY: Russia Says It's Ukraine Position is Well Known

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term pullbacks are for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again last week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3744.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3577.9, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.

• WTI Crude up $0.36 or +0.57% at $63.04
• Natural Gas up $0.04 or +1.49% at $2.931
• Gold spot up $35.04 or +0.95% at $3720.5
• Copper up $1.4 or +0.3% at $464.25
• Silver up $0.61 or +1.42% at $43.6868
• Platinum up $16.54 or +1.17% at $1425.4

Eurostoxx 50 futures recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Friday. Price has breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6748.50, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6602.01, the 20-day EMA.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 447.85 pts or +0.99% at 45493.66 and the TOPIX ended 15.49 pts higher or +0.49% at 3163.17.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 8.487 pts or +0.22% at 3828.576 and the HANG SENG ended 200.96 pts lower or -0.76% at 26344.14.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 107.8 pts or -0.46% at 23531.47, FTSE 100 higher by 6.99 pts or +0.08% at 9223.57, CAC 40 down 11.22 pts or -0.14% at 7842.68 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 8.52 pts or -0.16% at 5450.29.
• Dow Jones mini down 117 pts or -0.25% at 46534, S&P 500 mini down 14 pts or -0.21% at 6708.5, NASDAQ mini down 60.5 pts or -0.24% at 24806.25.

• NZDUSD tracks a 0.07% lower to start the week, relatively underperforming its G10 peers as the likes of EUR and GBP trade on a surer footing. Kiwi weakness was well documented last week following the much weaker-than-expected GDP figures that have raised the odds of the RBNZ more aggressively easing in Q4.
• Notably, Kiwibank now expect a 50bp cut in October followed by a 25bp cut in November so that the cash rate ends the year at 2.25%. They note "It has become crystal clear that the Kiwi economy is not recovering" and "the Reserve Bank needs to do more." Additionally, ongoing leadership woes add to urgency for kiwi dollar and rates traders to closely scrutinize the changing of the guard at RBNZ, according to TD.
• For NZDUSD, the sharp reversal from 0.6000 to current spot levels renews the focus on a significant pivot point at 0.5800, which coincides with the 50% retracement of the year’s range. Furthermore, the pair is currently trying to break a trendline drawn from the year’s lows, which may bolster the bearish momentum in coming sessions. Below 0.5800, 0.5728 and 0.5636 would be the most obvious targets for a deeper selloff.
• A lot of focus in recent weeks has been on the impressive breakout for AUDNZD, emboldened last week by the cross breaking to near 3-year highs above 1.1180, despite softer Australian jobs data. Since then, spot has been consolidating around 1.1250. Resistance appears scant until the 2022 highs, located at 1.1491.
• The domestic calendar is light this week, with ANZ consumer confidence for September due Friday.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI