REFINING: Russia Refinery Runs Fall to 4.87mb/d After Recent Drone Strikes

The bid in the broader USD, in light of the EU-U.S. trade deal and with some seemingly eying this week’s Fed decision (no change in rates expected), limits rallies in gold.

• Spot pierced Friday’s lows in Asia-trade, printing $3,324.0/oz before recovering to $3,335/oz last.
• Our technical analyst notes that gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high, although short-term weakness is considered corrective at this stage and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3,395.1/oz, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3,451.3/oz, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is $3,282.8/oz, the Jul 9 low.

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.77. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.

• WTI Crude up $0.39 or +0.6% at $65.54
• Natural Gas down $0.03 or -0.87% at $3.084
• Gold spot down $2.68 or -0.08% at $3335.16
• Copper down $0.3 or -0.05% at $578.35
• Silver up $0.06 or +0.15% at $38.2145
• Platinum up $1.47 or +0.1% at $1407.4

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness for now, appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00. S&P E-Minis have traded to fresh cycle high today as the contract begins the week on a bullish note. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6153.14. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6302.01.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 457.96 pts or -1.1% at 40998.27 and the TOPIX ended 21.13 pts lower or -0.72% at 2930.73.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 4.282 pts or +0.12% at 3597.937 and the HANG SENG ended 173.78 pts higher or +0.68% at 25562.13.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 111.22 pts or +0.46% at 24331.01, FTSE 100 higher by 11.81 pts or +0.13% at 9132.57, CAC 40 up 58.45 pts or +0.75% at 7893.03 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 51.53 pts or +0.96% at 5403.69.
• Dow Jones mini up 92 pts or +0.2% at 45178, S&P 500 mini up 20.5 pts or +0.32% at 6445.5, NASDAQ mini up 117.25 pts or +0.5% at 23539.25.