INDIA: RUSSIA-For Mins To Meet 21 Aug As Moscow & New Delhi Boost Defence Ties
Russia's Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will host India's Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar in Moscow on 21 August for bilateral talks. Since the imposition of 25% 'reciprocal' tariffs by the US on 7 August, and the threat of an additional 25% tariff in response to India's purchases of Russian oil from 28 August, India has notably ramped up its diplomatic relations with both Russia and China (see 'INDIA: CHINA-Direct Flights Could Resume Next Month As Relations Thaw', 12 Aug, and 'INDIA: Modi Confirms Putin Visit As US Relations Sour', 8 Aug).
- The meeting comes a day after Ukraine's Kyiv Post reports that, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, "the fourth meeting of the working subgroup of the Russian-Indian intergovernmental commission on military and military-technical cooperation is scheduled in St. Petersburg from Sept. 15-18. Over the four days, Russian and Indian delegations are expected to develop and agree on military cooperation plans for 2025–2026." The report claims that these plans are set to include joint training and military exercises.
- The Indian gov't would appear to see that closer relations with Moscow do not necessarily mean that dialogue with the US is shut off. Indian media reports claim it is likely that PM Narendra Modi will travel to the US in September. Ostensibly, this will be to speak at the UN General Assembly on 26 September, but it may also involve attempts to hold direct talks with President Donald Trump on trade and tariffs.
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SWEDEN: 3m/3m Inflation Momentum Eases In June Despite Upside Surprise
Swedish seasonally adjusted core inflation momentum eased in June despite the NSA upside surprise to the Riksbank’s June MPR projection. While the chance of an August Riksbank cut has certainly fallen following the print, it cannot be fully ruled out yet. There is still another inflation print due on August 7 (flash, final on 14th) before the August 20 decision and even then, weak growth data may tilt the Executive Board in favour of further easing.
- MNI’s 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised inflation measure fell below 3% for the first time this year at 2.90% (vs 3.14% prior). However, other annualised seasonally adjusted measures did move higher alongside spot NSA rates.
- Splitting apart CPIF ex-energy, we calculate 3m/3m services momentum little changed at 2.75% (vs 2.77% prior), while core goods momentum was weak at -0.41% (vs 0.20% prior). Core goods momentum may rebound next month though, when January’s 1.04% M/M reading falls out of the 3m/3m calculation.
- Turning back to Y/Y NSA rates, the proportion of sub-components with annual rates between 1-3% Y/Y (i.e. broadly target consistent) ticked up to 21% from 20% in May and 17% in April. 63% of components had annual inflation rates below 3% in June, unchanged from May.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI looks at the BOJ's internal policy calculations
MNI looks at the BOJ's internal policy calculations. -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
EGBS: Citi Recommend 10s30s BTP Flattener Vs. Bunds Or RAGBs
Citi recommend 10-/30-Year BTP flatteners boxed vs. Bunds or RAGBs.
- They suggest ongoing long-end BTP demand (expectations for foreign demand persistence amid calm politics and primary budget surpluses, calling for a lower risk premium) and limited supply should help flatten the BTP curve.
