OIL PRODUCTS: Russia Diesel Shipments Recover in Third Week of Sep
Sep-26 15:03
Russian diesel and gasoil shipments recovered in the third week of September despite ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure. Diesel and gasoil exports rose 85% in the week through Sep. 21 driven by a surge from Novorossiysk, according to Vortexa data cited by Bloomberg.
- Total refined product exports were about 2mb/d in the first 21 days of September, and lower than the preceding three Septembers and the lowest since last October.
- On Sep. 25, Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak announced a ban on diesel exports from non-producers until the end of the year. This follows a tightening diesel market in Russia as peak consumption approaches during the harvest season.
- Russian refinery crude throughput has slipped to 4.9m b/d in September, from 5.1m b/d in August, a drop of 300-500k b/d from previously forecast levels and down 400k b/d y/y, according to Kpler.
- Diesel and gasoil exports in Sep. 1-21 rebounded 8% from August to just below 830kb/d driven by supply to Turkey and East of Suez.
- Naphtha shipments are down 27% from the August high lowest since November at 328kb/d.
- Fuel oil fell to 826kb/d despite strong flows to India. Refinery feedstocks exports, including vacuum gasoil, fell to 47kb/d.
- Jet fuel exports were less than 3kb/d and no gasoline shipments were observed.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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ESM ISSUANCE: USD2bln WNG New 5-Year: Priced
Aug-27 14:58
- USD2bln WNG of the new 3.75% 5-year Sep-30 ESM-Bond
- Spread set earlier at SOFR MS+39 (SA 30/360) (guidance was SOFR+40 Area, IPT was MS+42 area, that was equiv. to CT5 + ~7.3bp)
- Books closed in excess of $13.3bn excl. JLM interest
- Reoffer 99.855 to yield 3.782%
- Issuer: European Stability Mechanism (TICKER: ESM)
- Issuer Ratings: Aaa (stable) (Moody's) / AAA (stable) (S&P) / AAA (stable) (Fitch)/ AAA (stable) (Scope)
- Format: Registered Notes, Reg S (NSS) / 144A
- Ranking: Senior, Unsecured, Unsubordinated
- Listing: Luxembourg
- Settlement: 4 September 2025 (T+6 (TARGET) / T+5 (NY))
- Maturity Date: 4 September 2030 (5Y)
- HR 101% vs CT5 (T 3 ⅞ 07/31/30 )
- ISIN: Reg S: XS3171756128 / 144A: US29881WAG78
- Coupon: 3.75%, Fixed, Semi-annual, 30/360, Following, Unadjusted
- Bookrunners: CACIB(DM/B&D) / DB / JPM
From market source and Bloomberg.
The transaction comes ahead of a USD3bln redemption for the ESM in September. That line also had a 5-year maturity initially.
STIR: BLOCK: SOFR White Pack
Aug-27 14:41
- 4,000 SOFR White packs (SFRU5-SFRM6) +0.000 at 1037:12ET - likely swap-tied sale with spds running wider in the short end
FED: September Rate Cut Base Case For Most, Though Some Holdouts Remain (2/2)
Aug-27 14:39
Elsewhere, multiple analysts now see a cut in September whereas previously they'd seen one later in 2025.
- Deutsche pulled forward their next-cut call from December to September (but still see a December cut).
- Barclays also pulled forward their view for the next cut to September.
- Natixis appears to have shifted its view for the next cut in October to be pulled to September "from this early juncture we think a September hawkish ease is more likely than not (assuming a 25bp cut), but there is still a great deal of time, and data, between now and the September FOMC meeting".
- SocGen likewise ("Previously, our base case was just one 25bp cut, and late this year (October or December). However, a rate cut at the next FOMC in September now looks an above 50% probability.")
- RBC isn't yet convinced of a cut before December: "While the odds of a rate cut next month are high, we aren’t yet convinced it is a slam dunk."
