IDR: Rupiah Softer in Morning Trade

• China's S&P Global China PMI (formerly CAIXIN) came in ahead of expectations in July.  
• Up at 52.6, it was  material increase from June's result of +50.6 and estimates of +50.4.
• The result was the best since May 2024 with the employment index up to +50.9, from June's contraction.  
• Prices charged rise vs the prior month in what will be welcome signs given the ongoing decline in CPI / PPI.  

China’s CPI is expected to reach 0.16% m/m in July, but fall to -0.45% y/y due to base effects, according to Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities. According to a CICC report, July’s CPI is anticipated to hit -0.2% y/y, weakening from 0.1% in June due to declining food prices. A Huachuang Securities report predicts a 0.4% m/m drop in food prices, mainly due to increased seasonal supply of fruit and decreased egg consumption, affected by higher production and hot, rainy weather. Regarding PPI, Ming Ming said the anti-involution strategy had increased the prices of major industrial products like steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals. July’s PPI is expected to rise 0.18% m/m and -2.79% y/y. (Source: Securities Daily)

China’s total value of service trade reached CNY3.8 trillion in H1, an increase of 8.0% y/y, of which exports totalled CNY1.6 trillion, up 15.0%, with imports reaching CNY2.1 trillion, up 3.2% y/y, data from the Ministry of Commerce showed. The service trade deficit stood at CNY510 billion, narrowing by CNY152.2 billion compared to the same period last year. Liu Xiangdong, deputy director at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said China’s service trade will likely maintain stable growth, especially in travel and knowledge-intensive sectors.