INR: Rupee Slips to New Low Amid Ongoing Trade Uncertainty, RBI Intervenes
- USD/INR has risen to a fresh record high, up 0.2% on the session but still below the psychological 90.00 handle. The lack of progress on US-India trade negotiations has weighed on the currency despite latest headlines suggesting that India is optimistic that it can reach a deal in 2025, with the unwinding of long INR positions by offshore market participants reportedly providing another headwind today. However, the pressure was blunted by dollar sales from state-run banks, most likely on behalf of the RBI, according to Reuters.
- Meanwhile, data later today (10:30GMT/16:00IST) is expected to show that GDP expanded at a rapid pace in Q3 at +7.4% Y/Y (Prior: +7.8% Y/Y). The modest slow down compared to Q2 is likely to be in part driven by slower export growth due to the impact of 50% tariffs on US exports. However, private consumption growth is expected to remain robust overall, driven by GST rate cuts and the subsequent boost in consumer goods purchases.
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NETHERLANDS: Final Poll Shows Five-Way Split At Top, D66 Surge & PVV Slump
The final mega-opinion poll from Peil.nl, carried out on 28 October on the eve of today's general election, shows the late surge in support for the liberal, pro-EU Democrats 66 (D66, 22 seats) continuing, while Geert Wilders' far-right populist Party for Freedom (PVV, 23) is no longer assured top spot. Should this poll reflect the final result, the clearest path to a majority gov't would be a broad 'middle' coalition bringing in the four mainstream moderate parties: the D66, centre-left environmentalist GreenLeft-Labour (GL-PvdA, 23), centrist Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA, 20) and liberal conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD, 22). The poll shows this coalition would win 87 seats, well above the 76 majority threshold.
- While GL-PvdA and VVD may prove reluctant to work with one another, after the chaotic experience of the previous Schoof administration, both parties may see it as in their interests to form a stable centrist administration. Neither is likely to back a PM candidate from the other. D66's Rob Jetten has emerged as the favourite after some late campaign errors by CDA leader Henri Bontenbal.
- The PVV looks set to resume its former position as the main opposition, with the mainstream moderate parties having sworn off working with Wilders. A massive outperformance by the party could potentially put pressure on the VVD and CDA to align with the PVV alongside JA21 (9) in a right-wing administration, but this appears an unlikely scenario.
- Polling stations are currently open and will close at 21:00CET (16:00ET, 20:00GMT), with the initial exit poll released immediately afterwards. For more info see MNI's Election Preview below:
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Chart 1. Opinion Poll, Seat Projection
Source: Peil.nl, MNI. Fieldwork: 28 October. 8,000 respondents
EFSF ISSUANCE: [CORRECT] RFP For Upcoming Transaction
[CORRECTS RATINGS] "Luxembourg – “Today, EFSF, the European Financial Stability Facility, rated Aaa (Moody’s) / A+ (Fitch) / A+ (S&P), has sent a Request for Proposal to a selection of banks from the EFSF/ESM Market Group with regards to an upcoming transaction, subject to market conditions.”
Source: Market contact
EFSF: RFP For Upcoming Transaction
“Today, EFSF, the European Financial Stability Facility, rated Aaa (Moody’s) / AA- (Fitch) / AA (S&P), has sent a Request for Proposal to a selection of banks from the EFSF/ESM Market Group with regards to an upcoming transaction, subject to market conditions.”
Source: Market contact
