INR: Rupee Slips to New Low Amid Ongoing Trade Uncertainty, RBI Intervenes

The final mega-opinion poll from Peil.nl, carried out on 28 October on the eve of today's general election, shows the late surge in support for the liberal, pro-EU Democrats 66 (D66, 22 seats) continuing, while Geert Wilders' far-right populist Party for Freedom (PVV, 23) is no longer assured top spot. Should this poll reflect the final result, the clearest path to a majority gov't would be a broad 'middle' coalition bringing in the four mainstream moderate parties: the D66, centre-left environmentalist GreenLeft-Labour (GL-PvdA, 23), centrist Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA, 20) and liberal conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD, 22). The poll shows this coalition would win 87 seats, well above the 76 majority threshold. 

• While GL-PvdA and VVD may prove reluctant to work with one another, after the chaotic experience of the previous Schoof administration, both parties may see it as in their interests to form a stable centrist administration. Neither is likely to back a PM candidate from the other. D66's Rob Jetten has emerged as the favourite after some late campaign errors by CDA leader Henri Bontenbal.
• The PVV looks set to resume its former position as the main opposition, with the mainstream moderate parties having sworn off working with Wilders. A massive outperformance by the party could potentially put pressure on the VVD and CDA to align with the PVV alongside JA21 (9) in a right-wing administration, but this appears an unlikely scenario.
• Polling stations are currently open and will close at 21:00CET (16:00ET, 20:00GMT), with the initial exit poll released immediately afterwards. For more info see MNI's Election Preview below:

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Chart 1. Opinion Poll, Seat Projection

Source: Peil.nl, MNI. Fieldwork: 28 October. 8,000 respondents

[CORRECTS RATINGS] "Luxembourg – “Today, EFSF, the European Financial Stability Facility, rated Aaa (Moody’s) / A+ (Fitch) / A+ (S&P), has sent a Request for Proposal to a selection of banks from the EFSF/ESM Market Group with regards to an upcoming transaction, subject to market conditions.”

Source: Market contact

“Today, EFSF, the European Financial Stability Facility, rated Aaa (Moody’s) / AA- (Fitch) / AA (S&P), has sent a Request for Proposal to a selection of banks from the EFSF/ESM Market Group with regards to an upcoming transaction, subject to market conditions.”

Source: Market contact