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MNI discusses potential changes to the BOJ's baseline scenario. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

A volatile impulsive bull wave in WTI futures remains intact. From a technical analysis standpoint alone, the sharp pullback from Monday’s high is not a surprise, given that the uptrend was in an extreme overbought position. The move down is allowing this overbought condition to unwind. A key support zone to monitor is $73.64 - $67.06, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break through this area would signal a possible trend reversal. Gold is in consolidation mode and continues to trade below $5419.11, the Mar 2 high. A S/T bullish theme is intact following recent gains. The metal has cleared all key retracement points of the sharp sell-off between Jan 29 - Feb 2. This strengthens the short-term bullish theme and signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at $5595.5, the Jan 29 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at $5095.9, the 20-day EMA. 

• WTI Crude up $3.75 or +4.49% at $87.43
• Natural Gas up $0.09 or +2.88% at $3.106
• Gold spot down $4.57 or -0.09% at $5186.95
• Copper down $11.05 or -1.86% at $583.95
• Silver down $1.14 or -1.29% at $87.1745
• Platinum down $25.48 or -1.16% at $2177.97

The sharp rebound in EuroStoxx 50 futures from Monday’s low is for now, considered corrective and this is allowing an extreme oversold trend condition to unwind. Key S/T resistance to watch is 5932.54, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is needed to signal a possible reversal. A resumption of the bear leg would suggest scope for an extension towards 5500.00, the Nov 21 ‘25 low. A clear breach of this support would strengthen the bear cycle. A sharp bounce in S&P E-Minis on Monday appears corrective - for now - and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The recent breach of 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, confirms a range breakout and highlights a stronger short-term bear threat. A resumption of weakness would open 6583.00, the Nov 21 ‘25 low and a key medium-term support. Initial firm resistance is 6890.53, the 50-day EMA. 

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 776.98 pts or +1.43% at 55025.37 and the TOPIX ended 34.57 pts higher or +0.94% at 3698.85.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 10.296 pts or +0.25% at 4133.433 and the HANG SENG ended 61.14 pts lower or -0.24% at 25898.76.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 384.03 pts or -1.6% at 23572.24, FTSE 100 lower by 105.29 pts or -1.01% at 10301.28, CAC 40 down 76.3 pts or -0.95% at 7976.5 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 74.11 pts or -1.27% at 5760.59.
• Dow Jones mini down 159 pts or -0.33% at 47580, S&P 500 mini down 13.25 pts or -0.2% at 6773, NASDAQ mini down 47.5 pts or -0.19% at 24931.5.