MIDEAST: RTRS-'Breakthrough' In Gaza Ceasefire Talks
Reuters reports that a breakthrough has been reached in Doha following talks between Israeli security and policy chiefs, US President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff and Qatari PM and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani. Claims that a 'final' draft of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal has been sent to Israel and Hamas for approval. The official claims that the Qatari PM met with representatives from Hamas while Witkoff met with the Israeli delegation in an effort to push both sides towards a deal.
- Israel's N12 reports the deal is largely similar to the three-stage agreement put forward by the Biden administration in May. This would see 34 hostages defined as 'humanitarians' released, followed by discussions on the second stage from the 16th day of the ceasefire including returning young men and soldiers. The third stage will see broader talks on governing Gaza and reconstruction.
- NYT highlights the issues that have dogged talks for some time. NYT: "[Netanyahu was] still unwilling to declare an end of the war as part of [the May draft deal]. Israel is insisting on a vaguer formula that leaves room for ambiguity and for a resumption of fighting at some point,[...] the Americans were supposed to provide mediators with a guarantee that the United States would work to bring the war to an end, [...]Hamas is also demanding detailed maps from Israel showing where it will withdraw to, [...] disagreements remain about the timing of an Israeli troop withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor"
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MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Inflation Data Keep Fed Cut On Track
We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Macro Weekly offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over the past week. Please find the full report here:
USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4393 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4327 2.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4296 2.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- PRICE: 1.4236 @ 16:38 GMT Dec 13
- SUP 1: 1.4069/3944 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend direction in USDCAD remains up and this week’s gains to a fresh cycle high, reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair has cleared 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to confirm resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4246 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4069, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Extending Late Session Lows, Curves Bear Steepen Ahead Next Wed's FOMC
- Treasuries traded steadily lower throughout Friday's session, initially mirroring weak action in Bunds and Gilts. By the close, the Mar'25 10Y contract slipped to 109-26 (-18) the lowest level since November 22, 10Y yield rising to 4.4046% high (+.0768).
- Initial technical support at 109-22 (76.4% Nov 15 - Dec 6 Upleg) followed by 109-20 (Low Nov 20/21).
- Curves bear steepened: 2s10s +2.272 at 15.568 as short end rates outperformed ahead of next week's FOMC policy announcement where another 25bp rate cut was expected but not certain amid current macro and political uncertainty. That said, the latest unemployment and inflation data have kept the FOMC on track to cut the federal funds rate by 25bp (to 4.25-4.50%) next Wednesday.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look near steady to lower vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Dec'24 cumulative -24.3bp (-23.7bp), Jan'25 -28.6bp (-29.6bp), Mar'25 -42.2bp (-43.9bp), May'25 -48.4bp (-50.5bp).
- No reaction to this morning's import/export prices, Monday brings flash S&P Global PMIs, Retail Sales, IP & Cap-U on Tuesday.
