OIL: Room for OPEC+ to Bring Back Supply: Currie
Oil markets are signalling they are tight with low inventories, opening the space for OPEC+ to bring back supply according to Carlyle Groups Jeff Currie speaking on Bloomberg tv.
- Sanctions have curbed oil flows from Iran and Russia by 1m to 1.5m b/d, though this has been mitigated by “redirection”
- “There’s more-than-enough room for OPEC+ to bring on that supply come April” Currie said.
- “It’s difficult” for US oil production to grow
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STIR: EURIBOR FIX - 30/12/24
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
| One-week | 2.912 | -0.023 |
| One-month | 2.867 | +0.004 |
| Three-month | 2.678 | -0.005 |
| Six-month | 2.562 | -0.015 |
| One-year | 2.454 | -0.011 |
CANADA: Ministers Leave Florida w/Out Tariff Assurances From Trump's Team
Canadian Finance Minister, Dominic LeBlanc, and Foreign Affairs Minister, Melanie Joly, met on Saturday with two key members of US President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming cabinet to discuss strategy to avoid a 25% tariff that Trump has threatened to impose unless Canada takes steps to secure the border.
- LeBlanc’s spokesperson described the Florida meeting with Trump's Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, and Interior Secretary/‘Energy Czar’ nominee, Doug Burgum, as “positive” and “productive”, noting the ministers “reiterated the shared commitment to strengthen border security" and "combat the harm caused by fentanyl." The spokesperson added that Lutnick and Burgum "agreed to relay information to President Trump.”
- Bloomberg reports: “It’s the second high-level Canadian mission to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in the past month, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met the incoming leader at the end of November,” noting that "Trudeau’s response to Trump’s tariff threat has been complicated by chaos in his government" including the resignation of finance minister Chrystia Freeland, who suggested in her resignation letter that Trudeau wasn't taking the tariff threat seriously.
- The New York Times notes the Canadians outlined a USD$900 million package of border security measures but “returned home without any assurances,” from Trump’s team.
- The Times adds: “…Trump has suggested that his tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada. Oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance. Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada.”
COMMODITIES: Gold Slippage Undermines Bullish Theme
Gold traded sharply lower on Dec 18. That move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- WTI Crude down $0.29 or -0.41% at $70.28
- Natural Gas up $0.32 or +9.31% at $3.706
- Gold spot down $6.44 or -0.25% at $2613.09
- Copper down $0.95 or -0.23% at $411.5
- Silver down $0.01 or -0.05% at $29.342
- Platinum down $3.07 or -0.33% at $921.83
