EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Romania: T-bill Aug issuance
Aug-01 07:07
(ROMANI; Baa3neg/BBB-neg/BBB-neg)
"*ROMANIA PLANS TO SELL 400M LEI IN T-BILLS IN AUG." - BBG
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SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Gains
Jul-02 07:05
- RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $35.904 @ 08:01 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: $35.799 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $34.657/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
A bull cycle in Silver remains in play. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $35.821, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $34.711, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: ECB-dated OIS Still Price One More 25bp Cut This Cycle; Tariffs In Focus
Jul-02 07:05
- The bar to significant near-term ECB repricing will likely hinge on any unexpected developments on the trade negotiation front. The FT reported yesterday that "European capitals have hardened their position in trade talks with Donald Trump, insisting the US drops its tariffs on the EU immediately as part of any framework deal before the looming deadline on July 9". Such a stance could risk an inflammatory reaction from the President – highlighted by the threats of 30/35% tariffs on Japan overnight.
- For now, ECB-dated OIS continue to price one more 25bp cut this cycle. Analysts leant in favour of a cut in September following the June decision, but OIS only assigns a ~45% implied probability of such a move at present.
- Euribor futures are -0.5 to -1.0 ticks through the blues.
- Today’s regional calendar includes the Eurozone May unemployment rate, expected unchanged at 6.2%. Further commentary from the ECB’s Sintra forum will also be eyed, particularly in relation to recent exchange rate moves. The MNI Policy Team released an interview with Bank of Portugal Governor Centeno this morning.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-25 | 1.916 | -0.5 |
| Sep-25 | 1.807 | -11.4 |
| Oct-25 | 1.772 | -14.9 |
| Dec-25 | 1.680 | -24.1 |
| Feb-26 | 1.669 | -25.2 |
| Mar-26 | 1.646 | -27.5 |
| Apr-26 | 1.651 | -27.1 |
| Jun-26 | 1.656 | -26.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
CROSS ASSET: Heavy selling going through in Treasuries
Jul-02 07:04
- As expected a lower than expected open for Gilt, this is being led by US Treasuries, Tnotes (TYU5) was sold in some 33k in the past 10 minutes, from 111.26, down to the immediate support of 111.22, just printed a 111.22+ low.
- The DXY and the Dollar are extending gains.
