CEE: ROMANIA-Relief For EU & NATO As Liberal Dan Secures Presidency

The win for liberal, pro-EU Mayor of Bucharest Nicosur Dan in the Romanian presidential election run-off on 18 May will come as a major relief for both the EU and NATO. There had been concerns in Brussels that a win for right-wing nationalist candidate George Simion could see Romania, one of the few NATO members that shares a border with Ukraine and host to what will become the alliance's largest air base in Europe, weaken its ties with and commitment to both the EU and NATO. 

• Turnout increased substantially between the first and second rounds, from 53.2% to 64.7%. The number of votes won by Simion increased from 3.9mn to 5.3mn, while Dan's increased from 2.0mn to 6.2mn, demonstrating that voters who backed other candidates in the first round largely swung behind Dan, as did many of the two million voters who cast a ballot in the run-off but not the first round.
• Maintaining Romania's position as a pro-EU nation committed to NATO and supporting Ukraine will soothe nerves in Brussels, but Dan comes into office with a significant amount of domestic uncertainty.
• Dan will have to appoint a new PM following Marcel Ciolacu's resignation after the first round of the presidential election delivered a stinging defeat to the candidate of the governing Social Democratic Party-National Liberal Party alliance. There remains pressure on Romania to enact budget reforms to drive down its fiscal deficit (the widest in the EU), making the formation of a stable coalition very difficult. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability Romania Presidential Election Winner, %

Source: Polymarket