EM CEEMEA CREDIT: ROMANIA: Policy Rate and Cautious Stance Expected Unchanged
[MNI Macro]
The National Bank of Romania is unanimously expected to maintain its cautious stance and keep the 6.50% policy rate on hold this month. The Bank indicated in August that inflation was rising and since then, headline CPI has risen to almost 10% y/y. Although concerns over the growth outlook will also be considered by the NBR, analysts expect rates to remain at current levels for the rest of the year and for most of Q1 2026 as well. The rate decision is likely to be announced at 13:00BST/14:00CET.
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FRANCE: Bayrou To Speak At 1400BST/1500CET; Expected To Be Ousted [1/2]
French PM Bayrou is expected to be ousted by a no-confidence vote today. According to the National Assembly website, Bayrou will deliver a “general policy statement” at 1400BST/1500CET, after which a debate and vote will take place.
- That means the outcome of today’s no-confidence vote will depend on Bayrou’s (possibly lengthy) address, and the National Assembly’s (possibly lengthy) debate.
- Looking at the time recent no-confidence vote results were published, there isn’t an obvious trend to note. It’s possible that the result won’t be known until after the cash close:
- Bayrou Feb 10: ~1515UK/1615CET (survived no-confidence vote)
- Bayrou Feb 5: ~1730UK/1830CET (survived no-confidence vote)
- Barnier Dec 5: ~1930UK/2030CET (did not survey no-confidence vote)
SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $42.606 - 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: $42.323 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2:$42.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $41.467 - High Sep 3
- PRICE: $41.040 @ 08:04 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: $39.363 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $39.147 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
- SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at $39.530, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on the $42.00 handle next. Initial support to watch is $39.363, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Weak REC Jobs Report Has Little Impact On BOE Pricing
SONIA futures are flat to -1.0 ticks through the blues, with the weak KPMG-REC jobs report released overnight having little tangible impact on near-term BOE pricing. BOE-dated OIS continue to price ~5bps of easing through November and ~11bps of easing through year-end. The next full 25bp cut is not fully priced until March 2026.
- The REC report showed further labour market softening - the most notable of which was the "steepest upturn in candidate availability since November 2020."
- All in all, we conclude that the probability of a November 25bp cut is increased a little by this report and it follows the DMP survey last week to be another downbeat labour result.
- However, we still need to see continued deterioration in the official labour market statistics and other labour surveys ahead of the November decision (including Agents' survey). And importantly, any earlier indications regarding pay settlements for 2026 will be key to the decision, too.
- This week’s UK calendar is light, with BRC shop sales for August due overnight before monthly activity data for July crosses on Friday. Much more focus will be on next week’s labour market and inflation double header.
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 3.974 | 0.6 |
| Nov-25 | 3.918 | -4.9 |
| Dec-25 | 3.860 | -10.7 |
| Feb-26 | 3.747 | -22.0 |
| Mar-26 | 3.706 | -26.1 |
| Apr-26 | 3.631 | -33.6 |
| Jun-26 | 3.605 | -36.2 |
| Jul-26 | 3.563 | -40.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P |
