EM CEEMEA CREDIT: ROMANI: Spreads remain elevated ahead of election round
May-02 10:09
Republic of Romania (ROMANI; Baa3neg/BBB-neg/BBB-neg)
Spreads remain elevated ahead of election round
- We look at secondary spread moves for Romania’s USD denominated curve, with anchor point Dec 6, 2024. We compare the moves to those of peers Hungary and Turkey (see chart below).
- We note that z-spreads for Romania’s 10Y tenors are some +80bp wide vs levels seen on Dec 6, 2024. This move is similar to that of Türkiye’s USD curve over the same period, whereas Hungary’s spreads are a mere +30bp wide area.
- Romania is heading back to elections this w/e for the rerun of the presidential elections, potential for a second round run off due two weeks later. Please refer to our earlier note for more context, link below:
https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/romani-spreads-remain-elevated-ahead-of-elections-1741610596254
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In EUROSTOXX 50 Fut. Remains Present
Apr-02 10:08
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintain a softer tone following recent bearish price action. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is 5757.95, the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Monday resulting in a breach of key support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. The contract has recovered, however, the print below 5229.00 undermines a bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The 5200 handle has also been cleared, opening 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. It is still possible that recent weakness is part of a broader correction. Initial firm resistance is 5335.34, the 20-day EMA.
US: SOFR FIX - 02/04/25
Apr-02 10:01
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.31930 0.00034
- 3M 4.27734 -0.00364
- 6M 4.16448 -0.00244
- 12M 3.95120 -0.00869
EQUITIES: Estoxx Call buyer
Apr-02 09:55
SX5E (17th Apr) 5600c, bought for 4.5 in 6.5k.
