SWITZERLAND: Roche CEO Sees US Trade Deal in "Matter of Days, If Not Hours"

USD sold slightly as BBG flash Powell as saying "Lower inflation, weaker labor could mean earlier cut" but the context is much more nuanced (as above): "We could see inflation come in not as strong as we expect. And if that were the case, that would tend to suggest cutting sooner. We could see the labor market weakening, and that would also suggest cutting sooner."

• Regardless, USD/JPY briefly prints a new daily low at 144.59, keeping the USD Index under pressure and boosting GBP/USD through the earlier highs.

President Donald Trump has issued a statement on Truth Social urging the Senate to stay in session as long as necessary to pass the 'One Big Beautiful' reconciliation bill. 

• Trump said to Senators, "lock yourself in a room if you must, don’t go home, and GET THE DEAL DONE THIS WEEK. Work with the House so they can pick it up, and pass it, IMMEDIATELY. NO ONE GOES ON VACATION UNTIL IT’S DONE."
• Trump's statement comes as Senate Parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, continues the so-called Byrd Bath to ensure each item in the package conforms with the rules of reconciliation. MacDonough's assessment of the Senate Finance Committee's portion of the bill is expected to be released today - covering taxation and Medicaid, making it the lynchpin of Trump's domestic agenda.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is aiming to hold the first procedural votes on the bill by Thursday. Thune wrote in a Fox News op-ed "we will remain here until this bill is passed," and is expected to return a bill to the House that is substantially changed from the bill that passed the House last month.
• Despite some lingering objections over deficit spending, Medicaid, SALT, and IRA tax credits, the bill is likely to pass the Senate, setting up a more challenging pathway through the House next week.
• Punchbowl noted this morning that Thune is "angling to use his substantial leverage to dare the House to reject any Senate-passed bill".

• The Conference Board consumer survey for June saw weaker than expected confidence as it eased to 93.0 (cons 99.8) after 98.4 in May.
• It continues what has been a mixed period for consumer confidence, with a multi-year high of 112.8 in January in the month of Trump’s inauguration before falling to a multi-year low of 85.7 in April with tariff announcements.
• Latest confidence readings remain below the 104.5 averaged in 2024 and imply a slowdown in consumption growth but with a weak fit with hard data.
• One area of particular note within the survey was the labor differential which eased further to 11.1 in June from a marginally downward revised 12.7 (initial 13.2) in May. That’s a new recent low, having last been lower in Mar 2021, and came with a similar decline in the perception of jobs plentiful to 29.2% after two months at 31%.
• Whilst this differential shouldn’t be used too heavily to estimate month to month moves in the unemployment rate, it nevertheless points to a further trend increase.