STIR: Risks Of Dovish Counter Around ECB
Dec-12 10:56
This week’s hawkish repricing in the EUR STIR space has been well-documented, after Executive Board member Schnabel outlined her comfort with markets pricing the next rate move from the Bank as a hike.
- ECB-dated OIS now prices 7-8bp of hikes for ’26, with odds of any further easing withdrawn post-Schnabel.
- While the balance of risks has clearly shifted since the ECB deemed monetary policy to be “in a good place”, questions over the medium-term strength of the Eurozone economy and path of inflation remain evident.
- We have already noted that ongoing deployment of the “in a good place” phrase at next Thursday's post-decision press conference could encourage markets to price a flatter hiking cycle.
- A reminder that our policy team’s latest sources piece noted that December meeting communication will seek to reinforce two-way risks around the policy rate.
- Characterisation of the updated core inflation projections, which are expected to undershoot the 2% target in 2026 and 2027, will be key to the market reaction.
- Elsewhere, ECB President Lagarde recently suggested that the Bank will likely revise its GDP projections higher, so that should be discounted by markets at this stage. Also note that the scale of any upward revision is expected to be relatively negligible.
- Accordingly, various sell-side names have shown interest in received EUR STIR positions as cheap downside hedges “in case something goes wrong”.
- Commerzbank have noted that “while the monetary policy of the ECB is largely independent of the Fed, the strengthening euro puts more question marks behind the rate hike the market has begun speculating about for next year. Together with unwarranted real yield tightening at the long end and lower 2027 inflation projections, we consider 2026 Euribor and €STR forwards attractive ahead of next week's ECB meeting”.
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EGBS: Regional Equity Rally Lending Support To Bund Futures
Nov-12 10:40
- A short-term bear cycle in Bunds remains intact, with initial resistance at 129.31 (20-day EMA) untested. Intraday, Bunds are down 13 ticks at 129.10. With market moving headline flow light, Bunds appear to be taking cues from the 1% uptick in European equity futures.
- German yields are up to 1bp higher today, and 20/30-year Bund supply is now in the rear view. Results were generally acceptable, though the 30-year line saw slightly weaker demand metrics than the 20-year.
- Ahead of the supply, we saw what looked to be an RX/UB steepener trade in futures (~E325k DV01), which helped German 10s30s to a session high of ~59.5bps.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds have narrowed as a result of the equity rally. OATs outperform, with the 10-year spread to Bunds down 2bps to ~74.5bps – the lowest since August,
- The EUR 10s30s swap curve has steepened almost 7bps since October 30, and is on track for a fresh cycle closing high at ~29bp. Confirmation of/reiterations surrounding the transition plans of large Dutch pension funds has reignited steepener interest, albeit with positioning in these trades already deemed to be somewhat heavy. 30bp presents the next obvious area of upside interest, followed by the Oct 7 ’21 closing level (35.03bp).
- German final October HICP confirmed flash estimates at 2.3% Y/Y, while Italian industrial production rebounded in September, rising 2.8% M/M, well above the 1.5% consensus.
- ECB’s de Guindos is scheduled to speak later this morning. We don’t expect any new signals.
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: 2.50% Aug-46 / 2.90% Aug-56 Bund
Nov-12 10:34
| 2.50% Aug-46 Bund | 2.90% Aug-56 Bund | |
| ISIN | DE0001102341 | DE000BU2D012 |
| Total sold | E1bln | E1.5bln |
| Allotted | E898mln | E1.14bln |
| Previous | E747mln | E1.182bln |
| Avg yield | 3.15% | 3.26% |
| Previous | 3.18% | 3.17% |
| Bid-to-offer | 3.08x | 0.99x |
| Previous | 2.33x | 1.11x |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.43x | 1.30x |
| Previous | 3.13x | 1.40x |
| Avg Price | 90.25 | 93.08 |
| Low Price | 90.24 | 93.06 |
| Pre-auction mid | 90.133 | 92.961 |
| Prev avg price | 89.65 | 94.74 |
| Prev low price | 89.63 | 94.74 |
| Prev mid-price | 89.532 | 94.631 |
| Previous date | 20-Aug-25 | 15-Oct-25 |
GILT SYNDICATION: 1.75% Sep-38 linker: Final terms
Nov-12 10:33
- Size: GBP4.25bln (MNI expected GBP GBP4.5-5.5bln)
- So a little below our expected range despite the strong books.
- Spread set earlier at 1.125% Nov-37 linker (GB00B1L6W962) +10.50bps (guidance was +10.50 / +10.75bps)
- Books in excess of GBP69bln pre-rec (inc JLM interest of GBP3.9bln)
- ISIN: GB00BMY62Z61
- Settlement Date: 13-November-2025 (T+1)
- JLMs: GSIB (B&D/DM) / JPM / NOMURA / SANTANDER
- Timing: Allocations to follow
Source: Market source and MNI colour
