US TSYS: Rise in Weekly/Continuing Jobless Claims Lends to Early Rate Support
Jun-12 19:22
- Treasuries look to finish near session highs set after this morning's weekly and continuing jobless claims came out higher than expected, PPI inflation metrics more in-line with expectations. Rates gained additional risk-off support after wires reported that Israel was "considering military action against Iran" in coming days.
- At the moment, Sep'25 10Y futures trade +11 at 111-01 vs. 111-06 high, just off initial technical resistance at 111-14.5 (High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg).
- Headline final demand PPI reading of 0.13% M/M was below the 0.2% expectation, and while that's offset by a decent upward revision to April (-0.24% from -0.47%), the overall index remains below its January level in seasonally adjusted terms, and up just 2.6% Y/Y.
- Initial jobless claims: 248k (sa, cons 242k) in the week to Jun 7 after a marginally upward revised 248k (initial 247k). Continuing claims: 1956k (sa, cons 1910k) in the week to May 31 after a marginally downward revised 1902k (initial 1904k).
- US $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open stopped through on decent demand, awarded 4.844% high yield vs. 4.859% WI; 2.43x bid-to-cover vs. 2.31x in the prior month.
- Focus turns to Friday's UofM sentiment and 1Y/5-10Y inflation expectations.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: Late BLOCK: Sep'25 SOFR Put Fly
May-13 19:18
- over 25,000 (Blocked/screen) SFRU5 95.62/95.75/95.87 put flys, 3.0 net ref 95.93 after the bell
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Projected Rate Cuts Recede
May-13 19:04
SOFR & Treasury option volumes gradually improved, flow still mixed, however as underlying futures scaled off early morning highs, projected rate cut pricing holds steady to mildly softer vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 steady at -2.1bp, Jul'25 steady at -9.8bp, Sep'25 -24.7bp (-26.8bp), Oct'25 -37.3bp (-40.3bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 0QU5 96.87/97.37/97.87 call flys, 6.0 vs. 96.59/0.10%
- -12,500 SFRU6 96.87/SFRZ5 96.25 call spds, 13.0
- +10,000 SFRU5 95.62/95.75/95.87 put flys, 3.0 ref 95.935
- Update, screen/Block over +22,000 SFRU5 95.81/SFRZ5 95.75 put spds, 1.0-1.5 net
- +10,000 0QN5 96.87/97.00 call spds, 3.0 ref 96.615
- Block, 6,660 SFRU5 95.81/SFRZ5 95.75 put spds, 1.0 net
- -4,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys, 3.0 ref 95.965
- +5,500 SFRU5/SFRZ5 98.00 call spds 1.75 net (Dec over)
- Block, 5,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.87 put spd spds, 3.0 net/Sep over
- Block, 5,000 0QM5 96.12/96.31 put spds, 3.5 ref 96.53
- 4,000 SFRN5 96.68/96.87 call spds ref 95.965
- 13,500 SFRM5 95.62 puts ref 95.70 to -.705
- 3,900 SFRM5 95.68/95.81/95.93 call flys ref 95.70
- 2,000 0QK5 96.81 puts ref 96.545
- 2,500 0QZ5 97.75/98.00/99.25/100.0 broken call condors ref 96.605
- 1,500 SFRZ5 96.75/97.00/97.12 broken call flys ref 96.225
- 5,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.87/96.00 call flys ref 95.705
- Treasury Options:
- -10,000 FVM5 107.75 puts, 28.5-28.0
- 6,100 TYM5 110 straddles, 56 ref 110-02
- 3,000 TYN5 107/109 put spds ref 110-04.5
- +4,000 TYM5 109.75/110.5 strangles, 35 (5.91% iv)
- -20,000 TYM5 109.5 puts, 10
- +6,900 TUU5 103 puts, 11.5-12
- over 40,000 TYM5 108/109 put spds, 5 ref 110-06.5
- Block, 20,000 TYN5 108/109 put spds 14 ref 110-09.5
- Block/screen, 30,000 FVN5 106.5/107 put spds
- over 13,800 FVM5 109 calls, 2.5 last
- over 10,000 TYM5 109.5/111 strangles
- 2,000 TYM5 109/110 put spds, 19 ref 110-07
- 2,500 TUN5 103.75/104 call spds vs. 103.12 puts ref 103-20.12
- 2,000 TYM5 109.5/110/111 broken put flys ref 110-08.5
EURJPY TECHS: Meaningful Next Leg in Bull Cycle
May-13 19:00
- RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug ‘24 sell-off
- RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 166.14 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 165.43 High Nov 8 2024
- PRICE: 165.11 @ 16:56 GMT May 13
- SUP 1: 162.80 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 161.99/60 50-day EMA / Low May 6
- SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
A bullish theme in EURJPY strengthened Tuesday with the break above the late Dec high. These gains reinforce a bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards 165.43, the Nov 8 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 161.99, the 50-day EMA.
