UK: Right-Wing Populist Reform UK Hits Record High 33% In Latest Poll
The right-wing populist Reform UK has secured its highest-ever level of support in a GB-wide opinion poll of 33% in the latest Find Out Now survey (fieldwork 7 May). This represents a 4% increase on the outlet's previous poll from 30 April. PM Sir Keir Starmer's centre-left Labour party are in second place on 20% (down 1%), while the main opposition centre-right Conservative party is in third place on 16% (down 3%). The centrist Liberal Democrats have 15% (up 2%) and the left-wing environmentalist Greens on 11%.
- The nuances of the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system mean that with such an even split between five parties, these figures put into Electoral Calculus' model for projecting general elections show Reform UK winning 421 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, a majority of 192. Labour comes in second on 92 seats, the Liberal Democrats on 56, and the pro-independence Scottish National Party on 43. The Conservatives would be reduced to just eight seats.
- While Find Out Now polls have in recent months shown Reform UK with higher support than other pollsters, the numbers are a notable reflection of Nigel Farage's party's strength following the 1 May local elections in which it was the clear victor.
- Having for the first time taken control of several local councils, attention will swiftly turn to the party's ability to govern and administer services at the local level. This compares to its historic position (whether as UKIP, the Brexit Party, or Reform UK) as an anti-EU, anti-immigration 'protest party'.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Testing Support
- RES 4: 115-00+ High Oct 1 ‘24
- RES 3: 114-29+ 2.000 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 2: 114-16 2.000 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 1: 112-29/114-10 50.0% of Apr 7 high-low range / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 111-24+ @ 16:55 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: 111-10+/110-08 20-day EMA / Low Apr 8
- SUP 2: 111-10+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 110-20+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 110-06 Low Mar 27
The strong sell-off from Monday’s high in Treasury futures is considered corrective - for now - and this is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in the break of resistance at 112-01, the Mar 4 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The move higher opens 114-16 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support at 111-10+, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 110-20+, the 50 day EMA.
ITALY: BBG-Meloni To Visit D.C., In Effort To Gain Tariff Concessions
Bloomberg reports that PM Giorgia Meloni will visit Washington, D.C., as early as next week in an effort to press the Trump administration to offer concessions on tariffs. The Italian leadership "will propose eliminating tariffs on bilateral trade between the EU and the US," given that "About 10% of Italy’s exports go to the US, with some of its most important sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automakers, and the food and wine industries heavily affected by the levies."
- US Vice President JD Vance is set to visit Rome over the weekend on a personal visit, but it is expected that he will meet with Meloni during the trip. Meetings with both Vance and Trump in quick succession would give renewed impetus to the perception that Meloni is the EU leader best positioned to work out a deal with the US, providing the Italian gov't with significant political capital in dealings with Brussels and other EU member states.
- Speaking in Luxembourg earlier in the week, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, secretary of the centre-right Forza Italia, was unclear on the Italian gov'ts stance regarding retaliatory tariffs. He said "Italy will support all the initiatives" of Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, and that Rome has no intention of putting the Commission "in difficulty.". However, he also raised the prospect of delaying the tariffs responding to Trump's earlier steel and aluminium levies to 30 April in an effort to facilitate talks.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Eichengreen On USD's Weakening Reserve-Currency Status
MNI speaks with economist and former IMF senior policy adviser Barry Eichengreen, who argues Trump tariffs will weaken the dollar's reserve-currency status.-- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
