ACGBs (YM +4.0 & XM +4.5) are richer after US tsys rallied ahead of the weekend. Friday’s round of US data was supportive of looser policy as inflation metrics cooled: lower than expected ISM Mfg (47.8 vs. 49.5 est), Prices Paid (52.5 vs. 53.2 est) and New Orders (49.2 vs. 52.7 est); as well as U. of Mich. Sentiment (76.9 vs. 79.6 est).
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Tsy futures gapped lower after broadly higher than expected Change in Nonfarm Payrolls of +353k vs 185k est (prior up-revised to 333k from 216k), Private Payrolls surge to +317k vs. 170k est. Unemployment Rate 3.7% vs. 3.8% est while Labor Force Participation Rate near steady at 62.5% vs. 62.6% est.
SOFR and Treasury option remained mixed on heavy volume Friday, accounts adjusting positions after an unexpected surge in January jobs: +353k vs 185k est (prior up-revised to 333k from 216k), Private Payrolls surge to +317k vs. 170k est. SOFR futures gapped lower (SFRH4-SFRZ4 -0.080-0.210) while projected rate cut chances retreated: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -22.2% vs. -38.7% pre-data w/ cumulative of -5.6bp at 5.263%, May 2024 at -70.6% vs. -90.8% w/ cumulative -23.2bp at 5.087%, while June 2024 at retreated to -87.9% vs. 105% w/ cumulative -45.2bp at 4.867%. Fed terminal at 5.3175% in Feb'24. Salient trade includes: