US: Review Of President-Elect Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago Press Conference
US President-elect Donald Trump delivered a wide-ranging press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on January 7, touching on various issues from energy to his foreign policy ambition of carving out a new US sphere of influence from Panama to Greenland.
- Please find below a full summary of the presser with analysis of the key comments related to foreign policy, tariffs, energy, and legislation.
Full article: Trump Press Conference Review
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Core CPI Seen At Another 0.28% In Nov, But Softer Core PCE
- We currently see analyst unrounded estimates looking for core CPI inflation of 0.28% M/M in November for the same pace as in October.
- Headline CPI inflation is seen at a similar rate of 0.27% M/M in Nov after 0.24% M/M in Oct (i.e. a milder acceleration than a rounded 0.3 after 0.2 would suggest).
- Note that whilst core CPI inflation is expected to continue at the same pace in November, early tracking for core PCE points to a moderation to ~0.22% M/M after the 0.27% M/M in October (Nov released Dec 20).
- The full MNI US CPI Preview will be published later today ahead of Wednesday's release.
US TSY FUTURES: Long Setting Dominated After NFPs
OI data points to net long setting across the curve in reaction to Friday’s NFP print, with the largest net DV01 equivalent positioning swings coming in UXY, FV & WN futures.
- Adjustments elsewhere were more modest, suggesting that short cover provided a bit more of an offset in TU, TY & US futures.
| 06-Dec-24 | 05-Dec-24 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,313,988 | 4,313,117 | +871 | +34,368 |
FV | 6,019,575 | 5,975,692 | +43,883 | +1,901,734 |
TY | 4,463,366 | 4,463,120 | +246 | +16,445 |
UXY | 2,219,147 | 2,187,606 | +31,541 | +2,889,644 |
US | 1,852,861 | 1,848,750 | +4,111 | +549,894 |
WN | 1,769,306 | 1,761,836 | +7,470 | +1,556,939 |
|
| Total | +88,122 | +6,949,024 |
