GBPUSD TECHS: Reverses Hard Off Recovery Highs
- RES 4: 1.1783 High Aug 29
- RES 3: 1.1738 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.1572 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.1489 High Oct 4
- PRICE: 1.1178 @ 16:41 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: 1.1025 Low Sep 30
- SUP 2: 1.0763 Low Sep 29
- SUP 3: 1.0541/0350 Low Sep 28 / All Time Low
- SUP 4: 1.0203 3.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
GBPUSD slipped sharply Thursday, putting prices through Wednesday lows as well as 20-day EMA support. This marks an extension of the pullback and works against the week’s early bullish tone. Initial firm support is seen at 1.1025, the Sep 30 low. For now, prices remain comfortably off the recent multi-decade low at 1.0350, Sep 26 low. Any resumption of strength would see the 50-day EMA at 1.1572 - a key resistance - as primary resistance.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Intact
- RES 4: 1.1963 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.1901 High Aug 26 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.1762 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.1624 High Sep 1
- PRICE: 1.1479 @ 16:47 BST Sep 7
- SUP 1: 1.1444/1412 Low Sep 5 / Low Mar 20 2020 and major support
- SUP 2: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1300 Round number support
- SUP 4: 1.1248 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bearish and the pair has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact - the definition of a downtrend. Note that trend is oversold however this does not appear to be a concern for bears. The focus is on 1.1412 next, Mar 20 2020 low and a major support. Firm resistance is at 1.1762, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Intact
- RES 4: 1.1963 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.1901 High Aug 26 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.1762 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.1624 High Sep 1
- PRICE: 1.1471 @ 16:47 BST Sep 7
- SUP 1: 1.1444/1412 Low Sep 5 / Low Mar 20 2020 and major support
- SUP 2: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1300 Round number support
- SUP 4: 1.1248 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bearish and the pair has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact - the definition of a downtrend. Note that trend is oversold however this does not appear to be a concern for bears. The focus is on 1.1412 next, Mar 20 2020 low and a major support. Firm resistance is at 1.1762, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Long End Rally Extends From Lower Real Yields And Breakevens Alike
- The day’s rally in long end Treasuries extends further, in line with oil woes on weakening global demand, with 10YY -7.8bps as they unwind half of yesterday’s sell-off and the 30YY -8.2bps as it pulls back from eight-year highs.
- As opposed to yesterday’s purely real yield led sell-off, this rally is led by a combination of breakevens and real yields drifting lower.
- TYZ2 trades 16+ ticks higher at 116-03+, pulling back after yesterday’s clearance of a bear trigger and today’s further low of 115-13+. The recent trend has been downward, but should today’s upward momentum continue, resistance is seen at 116-26 (Sep 2 high).
- After limited initial reaction to Brainard’s prepared remarks, front end yields are also moving lower, currently -4.3bps but again within yesterday’s wide range whilst with an eye on Chair Powell's comments tomorrow.
