US: Reverse Repo Operation
NY Fed reverse repo usage currently 1,865.287B w/ 86 counterparties vs. prior session's 1,900.069B (all-time high of $1,906.802B on Friday, March 29, 2022).
NY Federal Reserve/MNI
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CANADA: JPM Call Change After BOC
- JPM adjust their policy rate forecast to account for more hikes being needed to return to the newly upward revised neutral range of 2-3%.
- They now see two 50bp hikes in June and July (previously just June) before reverting to 25bps in Sep and Oct for an end-2022 rate of 2.5% (from 2.25%).
- They then see further hikes to 3.25% by end-2023 (from 2.75% by mid-2023) after hawkish remarks from Gov Macklem and Senior Dep Gov Rogers during the presser suggesting the Bank sees growing risks that policy will need to be above neutral for a time.
- The Bank has revised its inflation outlook substantially higher but JPM think it will still be surprised to the upside.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 30Y Bond Auction, Small Tail
Tys pared gains, bouncing back near midday highs after $20B 30Y auction re-open (912810TD0), Bond sale tails slightly: 2.815% high yield vs. 2.804% WI; 2.30x bid-to-cover vs. 2.46x last month.
- Indirect take-up recedes to 65.23% vs. 71.25% in Mar; direct bidder take-up climbs to 18.91% vs. 16.42% prior; primary dealer take-up climbs to 15.87% vs. 12.06%.
- The next 30Y auction (re-open) is tentatively scheduled for May 12
EURUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 1.1244 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 3: 1.1185/1222 High Mar 31 / 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
- RES 2: 1.1081 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0970 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0854 @ 16:23 BST Apr 13
- SUP 1: 1.0806 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
- SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
- SUP 4: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
EURUSD is inching towards key support and the bear trigger at 1.0806, the Mar 7 low. The pair remains bearish. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, continues to highlight a bearish threat and last week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. A break of 1.0806 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.0767, the May 7 2020 low. Clearance of 1.1185 is needed to highlight a base and reinstate a bull theme.
