BSP: Reuters Poll Indicates Easing Not Expected Until Early 2024
Sep-19 05:34
A Reuters poll is showing that economists expect the BSP to be on hold not just at the September 20 meeting but for the rest of the year, despite the August rise in inflation. A resumption of tightening at this point seems unlikely as BSP Governor Remolona expects inflation to return to the target band by October. See the MNI BSP Preview.
- 23 of the 25 economists surveyed by Reuters expect rates to be held at 6.25% on Wednesday. The other two expect 25bp hikes.
- 15 of 20 respondents expect rates to still be 6.25% at the end of 2023 while 2 are forecasting 6.5% and 3 that they will be at or below 6%. Rate cuts are more likely to be a Q1 2024 story as the economy slows more than originally projected with 13 of 19 forecasting rates at 6% or lower. 5 still expect them to be 6.25% and 1 at 6.5%.
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US TSYS: Markets Roundup: Rates Off Week Lows, Focus on Eco-Summit Next Week
Aug-18 19:28
- US Rates are holding moderately firmer levels after the bell late Friday, inside a relatively narrow range following Thursday's sell-off to new contract lows. A quiet end to the week with no economic data Friday, or next Monday for that matter, or Fed speakers until next week.
- Chicago Fed President Goolsbee returns with opening remarks at a Fed listens event on youth employment at 1430ET Tuesday, followed by a fireside chat with Gov Bowman at 1530ET Tuesday.
- Markets eager for details on next week's KC Fed Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole: ‘Structural Shifts in the Global Economy,’ from August 24 to August 26 (schedule/attendees list likely announced the evening of the 24th).
- Treasury futures bounced off early session lows to new session highs in midmorning trade, shy of overnight highs with obvious headline or block/cross driver. Cross-market/asset: Bunds inched higher after the cash open in stocks, Gilts off session lows; West Texas crude climbed .88 to 81.27 while Gold recede -1.45 to 1887.99..
- USD index held marginal negative territory. The Japanese Yen is the strongest performer in G10, with USDJPY slowly gravitating back towards session lows and the important pivotal support around 145.10.
US: Japan-ROK: Biden-Kishida-Yoon Joint Press Conference Underway Shortly
Aug-18 18:58
President Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are shortly due to conduct a joint press conference following the conclusion of their historic trilateral summit at Camp David, Maryland.
- Livestream: Link
- The Camp David summit is the first-ever tripartite meeting solely involving the three nations' leaders outside of the constraints of an international gathering and appears set to deliver President Biden one of his most significant foreign policy wins of his first term in the White House.
- More information in today's edition of our US Daily Brief.
- Summary of White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's press preview of the summit: Link
STIR: BLOCK, Late SFRF'4/SFRM'5 SOFR Call Spread Spread
Aug-18 18:56
- 20,000 SFRF4 95.12/95.62 call spds vs. SFRM5 96.75/97.25 call spds, 9.5 net SFRM5 over at 1432:35ET
