UK DATA: Retail sales surprise to the upside again

• Central government net cash requirement (excluding UK Asset Resolution Ltd and Network Rail) was £21.1 billion in March 2025; this was £7.4 billion less than in March 2024, and brings the total for the FYE March 2025 to £180.5 billion, £7.9 billion more than forecast by the OBR.
• This is what feeds into the remit revision - so a slightly smaller remit revision is likely as this isn't quite as bad as expected (despite the accrual measures such as PSNBex coming in higher this month with an upward revision).

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 93.44 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off        
• RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 92.63 High Apr 8                          
• PRICE: 92.44 @ Close Apr 22
• SUP 1: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15                                      
• SUP 2: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9  
• SUP 3: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)     
• SUP 4: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support (con) 

A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures between Apr 7 - 9 continues to highlight a bearish threat and recent gains - for now - appear corrective. Resistance to watch is 92.63, the Apr 8 high. A break of this level would signal scope for stronger bounce and expose 93.44, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on 89.99, the Apr 9 low where a break would resume the downtrend.

• MNI: UK MAR PSNCR GBP2.69 BN
• UK MAR CGNCR GBP20.94 BN
• UK MAR PSNB-X GBP+16.44 BN
• UK MAR PSNB GBP+16.44 BN