UK DATA: Retail sales surprise higher - but little impact on MPC decision

• There's very little change for the German 10yr Futures, Yesterday Powell stuck to his cautious Tone regarding the Labour Market and on the opposite side potential inflation risks.
• The initial support noted last Week at 128.04 is still holding, although it did print a 128.01 low on Monday.
• Monday's high of 128.41 also Held Yesterday, but better resistance are seen at 128.82 followed by the 129.13 Gap.
• Today sees, the German IFO and the US NHS (New Home Sales), but these are unlikely to be real Market Movers, and the Focus will be on Supply and Issuance.
• SUPPLY: Italy €2.5bn 2027 (Equates 18.9k Short 2yr BTP) Should weigh into that part of the curve, the 2031, 2039 linkers won't impact BTPs. UK £4.75bn 2030 (equates to 22.1k Gilt) could weigh into the bidding deadline. Germany €4bn 7yr (equates to 25.6k Bund or 46.4k Bobl), US sells $70bn of 5yr notes and $28bn of 2yr FRN reopening.
• Again short end part of the curves for Italy, UK, Germany and the US could be on the heavy side into respective bidding deadlines Today.
• SPEAKERS: BoE Greene, Fed Daly.

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.67 @ Close Sep 23
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.11/82 High Sep 22 / 11
• PRICE: 90.92 @ Close Sep 23
• SUP 1: 90.65/60 Low Sep 2 / 22 
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

Despite the latest pullback from its recent highs, Gilt futures remain in a bull cycle and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support to monitor lies at 90.65 (pierced), the Sep 5 low.