US PREVIEW: Retail Sales Set To Remain Elevated Nominally, But Not Real-ly (1/2)

• RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 3: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
• RES 2: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3930/67 High Apr 7 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3815 @ 16:23 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.3799 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 2: 1.3773 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3670 Low Mar 23 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3526 Low Mar 09

USDCAD traded lower last week. Despite the move down, a bull cycle remains intact and for now, short-term weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support at the 50-day EMA lies at 1.3773. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to signal a stronger reversal. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3967, the Mar 31 high and bull trigger.

• RES 4: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7161 High Mar 12    
• RES 2: 0.7103 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - 30 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.7095 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 0.7061 @ 16:22 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 0.6971 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6876 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6727 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low  

A bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The setup in the 20- and 50-day EMAs remains bullish - highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would open 0.7103, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of key resistance and a bull trigger at 0.7187, the Mar 11 high. First support to watch lies at 0.6971, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average would undermine the bull theme.   

• Sentiment improved amid flurry of midday headlines regarding the Hormuz straight between the US and Iran, negotiations continuing even after the US blockade deadline had passed.
• US President Trump has given unscheduled remarks to reporters at the White House, starting on no tax on tips before turning to Iran. Comments re thinking Iran will now agree on nuclear follows Axios reporting a little earlier that there are gaps between the US and Iran on enrichment but a compromise appears possible.
  • "TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: THINK IRAN WILL NOW AGREE ON NUCLEAR
  • TRUMP: IRAN TALKS STICKING POINT WAS OVER NUCLEAR
  • TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: CALLED BY OTHER SIDE, THEY WANT A DEAL" - bbg
• TYM6 trades +4 at 111-07 vs. 111-08 high, important resistance at 111-19+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 111-31, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Existing home sales fell sharply in March, from 4.13M to 3.98M, marking the joint-lowest since September 2024 and below the expected 4.05M. Current sales represent the equivalent of 4.1 months of supply, the highest ratio since November, suggesting loosening supply conditions. There was a decline in sales in each of the four US regions, though median sales prices (NSA) were up 1.4%.
• Support for crude waned in the second half, WTI below $100/bbl to appr $97.70/bbl vs. $105.50/bbl overnight high.
• Stocks are gaining: DJIA +.23%, SPX emini +.56%, Nasdaq +0.8%.
• Bbg US$ index well off overnight high of 1204.23, to 1196.60 after the bell (-2.11).
• LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP Weekly, PPI, Fed Speakers