SPAIN DATA: Retail Sales Rebound In February, But Q1 Trend Hard To Discern

Spanish retail sales rose 3.6% Y/Y in February, after 2.3% in January. Bloomberg consensus of 2.3% was formed of just three analysts.

• On a SWDA M/M basis, sales rose 1.3% M/M (vs -1.2% in Jan, 1.5% in Dec). That leaves 3m/3m growth at 0.6% (vs 0.3% in Jan, 0.9% in Dec). As such, it’s hard to discern a clear trend for retail sales at present, other than that growth is positive and should support aggregate consumption somewhat in Q1.
• Signals for the outlook ahead is complicated by the fact the EC’s Spanish retail confidence series has not been published since September (presumably due to a lack of responses).
• INE’s “Trade” Business Confidence Indicator was steady at 141.2 in Q1, though this was more driven by previous-quarter sentiment (7.9 vs 3.6 prior) rather than expectations for the coming quarter (0.2 vs 4.4 prior).