NORWAY: Retail Sales Momentum Softening, But Won't Concern Norges Yet
Oct-29 07:36
- Norwegian retail sales momentum is softening, but remains positive. Norges Bank will likely retain its cautious guidance at next week’s decision (alongside holding the deposit rate at 4.00%), but risks over the next 12 months appear tilted in favour of more easing than implied by the September MPR rate path.
- SA retail sales (ex autos) fell 0.5% M/M in September, weaker than the three analyst estimates ranging between -0.3% and 0.1%. August’s reading was also revised down a tenth to 0.1%. 3M/3M momentum nonetheless remains positive at 0.7% (vs 0.8% prior).
- Sales excluding autos and fuel fell 0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% prior), with 3M/3M momentum easing to 0.7% (vs 1.0% prior) and a YTD high of 1.7%.
- We were expecting to receive monthly data on household goods consumption this morning (which would have provided signals for next month’s Q3 GDP report), but Statistics Norway has said that the data has been “postponed indefinitely”
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SONIA OPTIONS: Ratio Put Spread
Sep-29 07:33
SFIU6 96.00/95.80ps 1x2, sold the 2 at 0.75 in 2.5k
GILTS: Rallying At The Open, Chancellor Reeves Due To Speak
Sep-29 07:30
Gilts rally alongside global core FI peers, with U.S. government shutdown risk in focus (despite the equity uptick).
- In line to slightly softer-than-expected Spanish CPI data also noted.
- Futures trade as high as 90.80.
- The bearish technical structure in the contract remains evident, with initial support and resistance located at 90.26 & 91.28, respectively.
- Yields 3-4bp lower, curve marginally flatter.
- Chancellor Reeves is speaking with local media before her ~12:00 London address at the Labour Party conference.
- Ongoing deterioration of the UK's fiscal situation is well-documented (limiting gilt rallies and keeping bearish/steepener technical setups in place), as such, pre-Budget comms from Reeves are set to provide a focal point of her address.
- BBG sources have suggested that Reeves “is debating whether to get rid of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s annual March outlook to strengthen her commitment to holding just a single fiscal event a year and bring greater stability to economic policy making”.
- However, the piece notes that this would risk a “confrontation with the head of the government’s fiscal watchdog”.
- Reeves seemed to push back a little against the idea of a VAT hike earlier this morning (see recent bullets for more).
- Money supply data and comments from BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden are due today (see our Global Week Ahead publication and this morning’s STIR bullet for more on the latter).
EQUITIES: EU Bank Large Block trade
Sep-29 07:25
EU Bank large Block trade, suggest seller:
- CAZ5 ~7.8k at 233.10.
